Playoffs?

They got out the slide rules, spread sheets, calculators with all of those funny-looking symbols and statistics to crunch the numbers and decided that the Phillies will win the NL East in 2007.

Phew! On to the playoffs.

Kidding aside – and I kid the “stat geeks” because, well, why not? – the good folks at Baseball Prospectus determined that the Phillies will win the NL East with 87 victories, edging the New York Mets by two games and Atlanta Braves by five. In fact, Baseball Prospectus predicts that the 87 victories will be the second-highest total in the National League (one game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks) sixth-best in the Majors.

Here are BP’s playoff teams:

National League
East: Phillies
Central: Brewers
West: Diamondbacks
Wild card: Padres

American League
East: Red Sox
Central: Twins
West: Angels
Wild card: Yankees

Based on this, the Phillies would play the Padres in the NLDS.

But as White Sox GM Ken Williams told the Chicago Tribune about BP’s predictions:

“That’s a good sign for us, because usually they're wrong about everything regarding our dealings.”

I won’t make my formal predictions until Opening Day eve, but here’s where I’m leaning:

National League
East: Mets
Central: Cardinals
West: Dodgers
WC: Phillies

American League
East: Red Sox
Central: Twins
West: Angels
WC: Yankees

That was easy enough. Let's get on to the champagne-soaked celebration.

***
Reports coming out of Clearwater indicate that either Adam Eaton or Jon Lieber will start the season in the bullpen. This information comes after the Phillies lost Justin Germano to the Padres who claimed him off waivers, and sent right-hander Brian Sanches to Triple-A Ottawa.

Germano was a little upset about heading to San Diego. According to the Associated Press’ Rob Maaddi:

“I'm pretty shocked,” Germano said soon after assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. informed him of the move. “I thought I was right there. I had one bad inning. I knew they didn't expect me to be perfect every time out.”

Meanwhile, players’ union head Donald Fehr will be in Clearwater to address the Phillies’ camp. Likely topics include drug testing and the World Baseball Classic.

***
Much has been made about the 76ers’ 50-point loss to the Houston Rockets on Sunday, which is the fourth-worst loss in team history. Needless to say, I didn’t watch the game and haven’t paid much attention to the aftermath, but here’s a thought: It’s reasonable to think that the Rockets could have played an entire half without scoring a single basket and still won the game.

Hey, they were up by 50!

***
Embattled Tour de France champ Floyd Landis will be near his old stomping grounds this weekend as part of his tour to raise funds for his legal defense.

As an aside, in researching the latest information on Landis, the case and his tour I participated in a message board conversation about the controversy before being attacked by someone who dubbed himself as “Pedrohead.” Besides being turned off by the whole message board experience, I’ve come to learn the identity of the character with the very apt nom de guerre, and let’s just say, “it figures.”

In the interest of full disclosure, my message board handle is, creatively, “jrfinger.” Do you think anyone will know it’s me?

***
Finally, the presentation from author Eric Schlosser at F&M College last night was quite interesting, though he didn’t stray too far from the information presented in Fast Food Nation. Nevertheless, a good time was had by all.

The new phone books are here!

As the statistically inclined are wont to know, the Baseball Prospectus yearbook for the 2007 season came out yesterday and is chock full of nerdy numbers and spread sheets that kept the stat geeks up all night pouring over the fine print.

I got my copy in the mail today and bypassed the abbreviations that I don’t know and the numbers I don’t understand and dived right in to the synopsis for the guys we’ll be seeing a lot of this season. What was found was a Mr. Blackwell-esque renderings for the Phillies – good thing the writers never have to go in a clubhouse.

Here are the highlights:

On Pat Burrell:
Fans and management alike jumped on Burrell for hitting just .222 with runners in scoring position last year. Never mind that that it isn’t so far removed from his normal batting average – given 153 AB with RISP, we talking about four, count ‘em, four hits worth of difference. Burrell is not a high-average player in any situation…
… using a low-average/high-strikeout hitter to protect Ryan Howard is the manager’s failure, not Burrell’s.

On Ryan Howard:
Historically, players like Howard, big-bodied guys with limited defensive skills such as Mo Vaughn and Boog Powell, tended to have high but brief peak periods. Their legs just couldn’t carry that much mass for very long, and around 30 their defense plummeted, their playing time dropped due to nagging injuries, and their singles dried up and disappeared. The Phillies should have a three-year window in which they can expect this kind of production from Howard, but should not plan beyond that.

On Charlie Manuel:
Manuel uses fewer lineups than any manager in baseball, picking one batting order and staying with it. He’s extremely conservative with the hit-and-run, reluctant to bunt with a non-pitcher, and his team hasn’t pulled off a squeeze play in the last two years. The Phillies bullpen has been a constant sore spot; as with his lineups, Manuel establishes pitchers in roles and then leaves them there whether they’re performing or not. … Given his mix of skills and strategic tendencies, Manuel is probably the greatest A’s manager Billy Beane has never hired.

On the Phillies’ chances in 2007:
Some faceless lineup members are going to have to step up to help a balanced but unspectacular team win the division.

There for the taking

According to the good folks at Baseball Prospectus, the wild card is the Phillies’ to lose. Actually, according to the statistics – nobody owns statistics… the numbers are out there in the ether and know no borders – the Phillies have a 63.70844 percent chance to hold on to their half-game lead in the wild-card race compared to the 26.98136 percent chance for the Dodgers and 9.23012 percent chance for the NL West-leading Padres.

So, if the statistics play out according to the way folks at BP crunched them, the Mets will host the Cardinals in the NLDS, while the Phillies go to sunny San Diego for two games starting on Oct. 4. Game 3 comes to Philadelphia on Saturday, Oct. 7 with a chance for Game 4 coming on Oct. 8 when the Dallas Cowboys are slated to come to town.

They have some wide receiver that people around here know and don’t like.

Anyway, the Phillies’ chances are greatly enhanced by a decision made by Roger Clemens last week. Rather than pitch in a game in Philadelphia on Monday – a game that could shape the outcome of the season for the Phillies, Dodgers, Padres and any other team clinging to life in the playoff hunt – Clemens decided to pitch on short rest in Houston on Sunday night so that he can get what he wants one more time.

That is more national TV time, one last outing in Houston, and everyone to jump through a hoop for him.

I wonder what Clemens would think if the shoe were on the other foot and he was playing for the Dodgers and another team’s best pitcher decided he didn’t want to face a team in the wild-card chase?

Observations with 10 games to go

Based on just looking around and listening, here are a few observations about the surging Phillies:

After injuries and other maladies curbed his first handful of pro seasons, it finally looks as if Cole Hamels is going to make to the end of one unscathed. Who would have guessed that Hamels first full season would come in the big leagues?

Be that as it may, Hamels is 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA over his last 10 starts, so it seems as if he’s getting stronger. According to his teammates, he’s just the same old Cole.

"That’s his personality," catcher Chris Coste said. "He’s strong minded. He knows what he can do. Whether it’s the middle or July or the seventh game of the World Series, he’s the same guy. That’s just the way he is. Whether it’s a playoff game or a game like this one, he’s the guy you want on the mound."

Said fellow lefty Randy Wolf: "He has one of the three best changeups in baseball."

Johan Santana is at the top of that list, according to Wolf.

Trading for Jamie Moyer and Jeff Conine was a masterstroke by general manager Pat Gillick and his assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. Forget what those guys are doing on the field, it’s in the clubhouse where the influence is really important.

Moyer and Conine, both 40 and over, are two classic lead-by-example guys, who have shown the youngsters on the Phillies how to prepare and get into the right frame of mind to play. Both guys are intense, they do their homework, and they bring an organic intensity to every task. Moyer and Conine are not in Philadelphia to goof around – they’re here to win.

In 2003 the Marlins picked up Conine for the stretch run and he helped his team hammer the Phillies to win the wild-card and contributed to the World Series run. More important than his home runs to beat the Phillies was the attitude he brought to the Marlins. I remember Juan Pierre watching how the veteran prepared every day and said he was afraid to talk to Conine because, “He always looks like he’s mad.”

It turns out Conine wasn’t mad. He’s just hungry.

Yeah, there are nine games left and the Phillies are as close to a playoff berth as they have been since 1993. Every victory puts them just a tiny bit closer. However, I still don’t feel it yet. Maybe it’s from watching too many Phillies games over the years, but I’m going to wait until the very end and reserve judgment.

Be that as it may, I think the Padres will win the NL West. Call it a hunch.

Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, here’s something interesting from Will Carroll’s injury column that could have some bearing on this weekend’s series:

Miguel Cabrera has missed a couple games with a strained shoulder, the result of an awkward lunge at an outside pitch. Cabrera’s injury isn’t considered serious, but could keep him out for the rest of the season. The team is focused on getting past the controversy surrounding their manager and one way to do that would be finishing at or above .500. Cabrera’s return might well be tied to the chances of hitting that magic number. The MVP candidate should have no long-term concerns from the injury.

Carroll’s column is stellar stuff, though Howie Bryant’s steroids-in-baseball book was far superior to Carroll’s.

I play hunches, but at BP they use science. Here are the latest postseason odds as generated by the folks at BP simulating the final 10 games of the season a million times:

Phillies are on pace to win 84.1 games, which gives them a 46.53874 percent chance to win the wild card. However, the Padres (85.4 victories) and the Dodgers (84.7), still rate above the Phillies.

Can you say playoff game in Philadelphia on Oct. 2?

MVP?

Around these parts, Ryan Howard has slugged his way into the debate for NL MVP. And why not? With a homer in four straight games, Howard leads the Majors with 48 home runs as well as with 125 RBIs.

But nationally Howard isn’t getting as much respect as in Philly and that’s especially the case with that stat folks and logical types at Baseball Prospectus. According to a story on the BP site by Joe Sheehan, Ryan Howard isn’t even the MVP on the Phillies.

Here’s an excerpt from the story:

Apparently, the NL MVP race isn’t as small as I would have it. Many, many readers--even more than the number who chimed in defending Jermaine Dye’s honor when I left him out of the AL MVP discussion--wrote in to question the absence of Ryan Howard from Monday’s article. Howard leads the NL in homers, RBI and slugging average. His hot August (.330/.431/.699), coupled with the Phillies’ "surge" to the vicinity of .500 and the wild-card slot, has made him a viable candidate in some quarters.

The problem isn’t just that Howard’s season is not on par with Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Beltran. The problem is that Howard isn’t the most valuable Phillies infielder on the right side of second base.

AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP FRAR WARP1
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Howard .294 .382 .628 .318 50.2 -4 5.4
Chase Utley .317 .385 .525 .300 53.5 15 6.4

Howard hits more home runs than Chase Utley. Utley and the three real MVP candidates do everything else better than Howard does. The big guy is seventh in the league in EqA, VORP and RARP, and off the charts in WARP. Once you account for position and the things baseball players do other than hit homers, he falls rapidly down the lists.

Can Howard be a serious MVP candidate when he’s three wins worse than the other first baseman in the discussion?

AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP FRAR WARP1
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Howard .294 .382 .628 .318 50.2 -4 5.4
Albert Pujols .323 .424 .665 .345 65.4 19 8.8

From here to the end of the season it will be a wide-open race. If Howard gets to 60 homers, give him the trophy… and all of the bonus clauses.

Joe Sheehan: Howard the Phillie