According to the good folks at Baseball Prospectus, the wild card is the Phillies’ to lose. Actually, according to the statistics – nobody owns statistics… the numbers are out there in the ether and know no borders – the Phillies have a 63.70844 percent chance to hold on to their half-game lead in the wild-card race compared to the 26.98136 percent chance for the Dodgers and 9.23012 percent chance for the NL West-leading Padres.
So, if the statistics play out according to the way folks at BP crunched them, the Mets will host the Cardinals in the NLDS, while the Phillies go to sunny San Diego for two games starting on Oct. 4. Game 3 comes to Philadelphia on Saturday, Oct. 7 with a chance for Game 4 coming on Oct. 8 when the Dallas Cowboys are slated to come to town.
They have some wide receiver that people around here know and don’t like.
Anyway, the Phillies’ chances are greatly enhanced by a decision made by Roger Clemens last week. Rather than pitch in a game in Philadelphia on Monday – a game that could shape the outcome of the season for the Phillies, Dodgers, Padres and any other team clinging to life in the playoff hunt – Clemens decided to pitch on short rest in Houston on Sunday night so that he can get what he wants one more time.
That is more national TV time, one last outing in Houston, and everyone to jump through a hoop for him.
I wonder what Clemens would think if the shoe were on the other foot and he was playing for the Dodgers and another team’s best pitcher decided he didn’t want to face a team in the wild-card chase?