As the statistically inclined are wont to know, the Baseball Prospectus yearbook for the 2007 season came out yesterday and is chock full of nerdy numbers and spread sheets that kept the stat geeks up all night pouring over the fine print.
I got my copy in the mail today and bypassed the abbreviations that I don’t know and the numbers I don’t understand and dived right in to the synopsis for the guys we’ll be seeing a lot of this season. What was found was a Mr. Blackwell-esque renderings for the Phillies – good thing the writers never have to go in a clubhouse.
Here are the highlights:
On Pat Burrell:
Fans and management alike jumped on Burrell for hitting just .222 with runners in scoring position last year. Never mind that that it isn’t so far removed from his normal batting average – given 153 AB with RISP, we talking about four, count ‘em, four hits worth of difference. Burrell is not a high-average player in any situation…
… using a low-average/high-strikeout hitter to protect Ryan Howard is the manager’s failure, not Burrell’s.
On Ryan Howard:
Historically, players like Howard, big-bodied guys with limited defensive skills such as Mo Vaughn and Boog Powell, tended to have high but brief peak periods. Their legs just couldn’t carry that much mass for very long, and around 30 their defense plummeted, their playing time dropped due to nagging injuries, and their singles dried up and disappeared. The Phillies should have a three-year window in which they can expect this kind of production from Howard, but should not plan beyond that.
On Charlie Manuel:
Manuel uses fewer lineups than any manager in baseball, picking one batting order and staying with it. He’s extremely conservative with the hit-and-run, reluctant to bunt with a non-pitcher, and his team hasn’t pulled off a squeeze play in the last two years. The Phillies bullpen has been a constant sore spot; as with his lineups, Manuel establishes pitchers in roles and then leaves them there whether they’re performing or not. … Given his mix of skills and strategic tendencies, Manuel is probably the greatest A’s manager Billy Beane has never hired.
On the Phillies’ chances in 2007:
Some faceless lineup members are going to have to step up to help a balanced but unspectacular team win the division.