They say you can’t be too rich or too thin. But then again, they say a lot of things. But maybe people can become too rich. Do “they” have a theory on that one? Maybe people can accumulate so much money that they don’t know what to do with it.
Or maybe they think it makes them classy or smart? You know, it’s a self-worth or ego thing or something.
But make no mistake about it, as Ryan Howard adds to his bankroll it nearly guarantees that the Phillies’ payroll will get thinner in the not-so distant future. Like in 2011 when the big fella is finally eligible to become a free agent.
And, oh yes, he will become a free agent.
You see, somewhere the brass for the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees quietly noted the landmark $18 million “request” from Howard to the Phillies in arbitration and stashed the info away. After all, it doesn’t really matter whether or not Howard “wins” in arbitration or not because, really, what’s the difference whether he makes $14 million and $18 million in ’09?
Actually, the difference is that the price tag already might be a little too heavy for the club. Oh yeah, forget about the fact that the team routinely sells out its new ballpark and that it just won the World Series and raised ticket prices. And forget the fact that Major League Baseball had $6.5 billion (with a “B”) – the cash is tight with the Phillies.
Just look at it. The Phillies finally began pushing the payroll into the rate befitting a ballclub in the fourth-largest media market in the country this decade. Yet while doing so the players with escalating salaries were quickly shed when “cheaper” alternatives became available.
What’s wrong with that? Well, nothing of course.
But think about for a second… right now the Phillies’ payroll is $112.68 million before Howard has even been signed. That figure already surpasses the amount in paychecks the team gave to its players in 2008. Plus, the two guys in that $14 million neighborhood were sent to other teams – one, Jim Thome, left before his contract expired. In fact, the Phillies are still on the hook for $3 million of Thome’s salary next season.
The other guy, Pat Burrell, didn’t get an offer for arbitration from the Phillies. Instead the Phillies gave 36-year old Raul Ibanez three years and $31.5 million.
It seems as if $14 million is where the Phillies draw the line.
So here's the $18 million question:
How much longer will the Phillies be able to afford him?
Think about it - the Phillies and Howard will more than likely be back in the same position again next year, only this time the slugger won’t be asking for a measly $18 million per season.
At least that’s the way the trends skew. Howard not only has set precedents in terms of salary for a player with his limited Major League experience, but he also is operating in unchartered territory when it comes to prolific power statistics. In fact, his 153 home runs and 431 RBIs during the past three seasons could be the greatest debut power years (non-alleged steroid division) ever. Forget the first full three seasons, there aren’t too many players in baseball history that have hit 153 homers in a career, let alone three consecutive seasons.
So where does that leave the Phillies now that Howard and his camp, led by his dad and agent Casey Close? And what happens if the big fella clubs 60 homers and 150 RBIs for a playoff team in ‘08? Can the Phillies afford not to work out a long-term deal with Howard just so they can avoid record payouts in arbitration year after year until 2011?
Or, did Howard price himself out of Philadelphia? The consensus from the fans was that Howard justly won his arbitration case last year. It also seems as if they are rooting for the big guy to get the big check again this year, too. But in doing so are they really rooting against themselves? Will they cheer as loudly for Howard when he's in New York or Boston?
That could be the scenario since the chatter out there is that Team Howard is seeking a long-term deal in the A-Rod strata. Surely the just thinking about something like that ought to be enough to cause some sleepless nights for some execs.
“He has made no indication that he wants to leave Philadelphia,” Amaro said. “I think this is an ideal situation for him. He has an opportunity to play for a winning team, and he has an opportunity to maximize what he does best which is to hit home runs and drive in runs. He is surrounded by quality players.”
Ah yes, but Howard just got his ring. Now get ready for him to start quoting Rod Tidwell because careers are short and that’s especially the case for guys like Howard. The truth is guys like Howard don’t last as long. Already 29, Howard is seemingly in the prime years for a big, lumbering and slugging type of player. History shows that the big fellas just don’t last that long -- especially if they have to play in the field. The game is littered with guys like Howard who were washed up before their 35th birthday. Greg Luzinski was washed up at 33; Boog Powell at 34; Mo Vaughn at 34; John Kruk at 33; Kent Hrbek at 34… the list goes on and on. Even 33-year old David Ortiz is beginning to break downThe one big guy who has lasted a long time is Frank Thomas and that comes in part because he’s played just 36 games in the field since 2001, and missed nearly 2½ seasons because of injuries.
Need more? The geeks at “Baseball Prospectus” suggested that Howard could be peaking in its 2007 yearbook:
Historically, players like Howard, big-bodied guys with limited defensive skills such as Mo Vaughn and Boog Powell, tended to have high but brief peak periods. Their legs just couldn’t carry that much mass for very long, and around 30 their defense plummeted, their playing time dropped due to nagging injuries, and their singles dried up and disappeared. The Phillies should have a three-year window in which they can expect this kind of production from Howard, but should not plan beyond that.
So the Phillies aren’t ready to break the bank for Howard just yet. Not when they don’t have to. Or maybe it’s just a matter of getting creative with Howard. Though recent history shows that the high-priced talent gets shipped out of town (Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen, Thome, Burrell) before the it gets too steep, historically, the team has showed a creative side.
The Phillies were creative when they signed Pete Rose in 1979, they also had Mike Schmidt when he was the highest-paid player in the game, and they signed Lance Parrish for (relative) big money when the other owners had been judged to have colluded against free-agent players.
Still, the Phillies have never dealt with something like Ryan Howard.
Not many teams have.
So here we go again. Once again the Phillies head into the deep waters with their greatest slugger ever in the second annual salary quest. Can’t make it this year… no problem, the cash prizes will be even bigger in 2010.
Maybe then the Phillies will empty out their pockets and dig into the sofa cushions and find a $200 million check sitting around. Plus, there will likely be a lot of fans willing to shell out plenty of money for tickets to watch the Howard and his Phillies’ teammates attempt to repeat as World Series champs in 2009.
A bake sale ain’t getting this one done, folks. There aren’t that many brownies in the world to sell.