What, me worry? About Ryan Howard?

I picked up something interesting on the Baseball-Reference Blog the other day. But before we get into that, we must point out that Baseball-Reference.com just might be the greatest web site ever invented. For baseball geeks (like me), it’s an unending source of amusement and entertainment. The truth is the little site that grew into a fulltime job for former St. Joe’s professor Sean Forman, is exactly what the web should be. It is perfect, and better yet, it keeps guys like me from lugging around silly things like media guides or the Baseball Encyclopedia from city to city and ballpark to ballpark.

So for that, thank you Dr. Forman.

But really… actual media guides in a digital world?

Anyway, the thing I picked up on the blog carried the headline, “What worries me about Ryan Howard.” That’s a pretty catchy headline considering the Phillies’ offensive success hinges largely on Howard’s ability to hit home runs.

Actually, the Phillies’ success is all about the home run. If they don’t homer, they have trouble scoring runs. For instance, 25 of the team’s last 36 runs have come on home runs. That’s a whopping 69.4 percent. Moreover, this season the Phillies lead the Majors in runs from homers with more than 46 percent of their runs coming from homers.

Nevertheless, the Howard entry came with two graphs of stats showing the worst OPS+ values for 45 HR seasons in big league history, and the lowest OPS values for hitters with more than 30 bombs this season. In both Howard ranked third.

Check ‘em out...

Now here’s the thing… how can averaging 50 homers per 162 games throughout his career be worrisome? Sure, Howard strikes out a lot and his walk totals have dipped this season, which has more to do with the fact that he no longer has Pat Burrell hitting behind him in the batting order.

As Howard himself might say, “It is what it is.” The Big Piece hits home runs at the expense of a lot of things, but he’s hardly the current version of Dave Kingman. Saying it’s worrisome that a guy slugging more than 45 homers a season and owning three of the franchise’s top four home-run producing seasons is kind of silly. It doesn’t really explain the type of player Howard is – or has become.

The guy actually fields his position now, and may finally be learning to use the entire field when making contact which could render those dreaded shifts as useful as an actual media guide.

This isn’t to say Howard is the most complete player on the team – far from it. But there isn’t a real reason to be “worried” about Howard yet. In fact, saying there’s worry over a guy who has blasted 214 home runs in 698 games (with 610 RBIs) is kind of like eating ice cream and complaining that there weren’t enough red sprinkles on it.

Even if the green, yellow and blue clearly outnumbered the red ones, it’s hardly a rip off.

No, the time to get worried about Howard is when he stops hitting 45-plus homers a season. Because when he stops doing that, he becomes the current-day Steve Balboni and (nothing against Balboni) no one wants to see that.

But really… what’s with the Phillies and homers? Here’s a little stat from the 2008 post-season – the Phillies scored 64 runs against Milwaukee, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay to win the World Series and of those runs 32 came on homers.

It breaks down like this:

14 of 24 in the World Series 8 of 25 in the NLCS 10 of 15 in the NLDS

Feast or famine, huh?

Here we go...

Having computer issues here at the park... all of sudden the wireless slowed to a crawl. We're getting ready to hit some dingers here at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, or The Loo, as they say. Oddly, there is a band warming up the crowd with some faux alt-rock and pyro. Lots and lots of PYRO!

The set up the stage with all banners representing all the corporate sponsors blocking the monitors and PA and set up the stage behind second base.

Is David Cook a band? If so, that just might be who was on FIRE!

Anyway, Prince Fielder will hit first and Berman is doing the intros. Luckily, we can't hear him so well up here in the press box. Which is fine.

But make no mistake, St. Louis homeboy Ryan Howard got the loudest ovation if you exclude Albert Pujols. The truth is if you own a company that makes Albert Pujols shirts or memorabilia in St. Louis, you are a very wealthy person.

You can't shake a dead skunk in The Loo without hitting a dude in a Albert Pujols shirt. Albert is The Man. Stan Musial needs a new nickname.

opening night: second inning

Just saw a guy having a conversation with a person even though he had his cell phone plastered to his ear. Very odd. Also on the odd front was Myers' first pitch of the second inning to Jeff Francoeur... that one turned into a souvenir and gave the Braves a 3-0 lead. An out later, rookie Jordan Shafer smacked one near the 409 sign in left-center.

For Shafer it was a pretty big hit in his first Major League plate appearance.

Yeah, that's right... a home run in his first Major League plate appearance. Pretty good. Jermaine Dye was the last Brave to homer in his first AB. Mark Saccomanno of the Astros was the last big leaguer to homer in his first at-bat. He did it last Sept. 8.

Meanwhile, all the homers shoot my theory about Myers being relaxed right in the rear.

Derek Lowe has been relaxed -- six up and six down for the new Brave. He also has a four-run lead.

Third inning: Feel the thunder

MILWAUKEE – Things seem to have settled in here at Miller Park. Sure, those annoying thunder sticks are still clamoring, but not with the same volume as during the beginning of the game. If, however, the Brewers stage a rally or something, we might all need some ibuprofen or something.

Nevertheless, Shane Victorino got a hustling double on a little blooper just over third base with one out and then moved to third on a ground out by Chase Utley

Yes, once again the middle of the order failed with runners in scoring position.

That didn’t last, though. For the first time in a long time, the Phils delivered a HUGE hit with runners on when Pat Burrell smacked a bomb off Jeff Suppan following an intentional walk to Ryan Howard.

Needless to say, the thunder sticks got a little quieter.

For some reason the noise coming out of those thunder sticks sounded a lot like boos after Jayson Werth pasted a long homer to the concourse in center field. That one spelled the end for Jeff Suppan:

3 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 3 HR – 65 pitches, 41 strikes.

Go ahead and book your flights to LA, folks. The Phillies will be hard-pressed to blow this one. That’s especially the case after they had an inning without a runner left on base.

End of 3: Phillies 5, Brewers 0

No more fun of any kind

When Steve Garvey smacked a clutch home run in the 1984 NLCS to help the Padres force another epic choke job by the historically laughable Chicago Cubs, he circled the bases with one fist in the air. It was a simple gesture for the biggest hit of a series that ultimately sent the Padres to their first ever World Series. Kirby Puckett famously circled the bases with a fist in the air after hitting a 12^th-inning homer in Game 6 of the 1991 World Series. Puckett's homer helped the Twins stave off elimination and force a Game 7 against the Braves that might be the greatest game ever played.

What about Kirk Gibson's histrionics after launching a walk-off piece off Dennis Eckersley in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series? It was as if Gibson were limping around the bases and pretending to start a phantom lawnmower all at the same time.

And of Reggie Cadillac-ed every home run he ever hit - whether in the World Series or the regular season. Reggie also had that distinctive home run trot in which he usually adjusted his wire-framed glasses with a push of his index finger to settle the frames back onto the bridge of his nose.

Who would have ever thought a guy adjusting his glasses could ever be so cool?

Nevertheless, when we were kids we loved all of these shows. Sure, Reggie was a player fans loved to hate - mostly because he was a Yankee - and Garvey seemed to grate on folks, too. But who didn't like watching ballplayers rise to the occasion? Who didn't like a show?

Better yet, who doesn't like to watch people have fun? Baseball is supposed to be fun, right?

So when Jose Reyes ran the bases with one finger raised following his game-winning, three-run blast off Ryan Madson last night at Shea Stadium, the hand wringing was inevitable. You just knew it was coming. A showboat like Reyes running the bases like he was excited about hitting a homer in a key spot...

For shame!

Reyes is a showboat whose antics irk even his teammates, some blathered. He's unprofessional, others said. Perhaps he should be plunked with a pitch the next time he comes to the plate for "showing up" the Phillies.

Yeah, he was showing up the Phillies by trying to hit a home run. Maybe he should have struck out, gently replaced his bat and helmet in their proper receptacles, poured himself a cool drink from the corporately licensed barrel and found a comfortable seat in the dugout.

After all, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley never do anything showy when they hit home runs. They are the models of professional decorum when they circle the bases...

Come off it!

Then again, the self-righteous blatherings from us media types are part of the show, too. We're all actors in the same game only they jocks like to pretend they are just modest athletes trying to make a living, and the press likes to pretend it is above it all and is merely a conduit to the fans.

Insert sarcastic comment here.

Look, Reyes' act is clownish and a little embarrassing with the array of dance steps, ridiculous handshakes and other juvenile sideshows. But really, who cares? He's a baseball player getting paid a lot of money to play a game. If Reyes had an important job maybe the jitterbug routine would be offensive, but he doesn't. Baseball players are entertainers.

Most people get this. In fact, no one in Philadelphia seems to mind when Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins pull off their tributes to Reggie whenever they really get a hold of one. Heck, even Utley's speedy dash around the bases is a type of showboating. After all, sometimes no style is, indeed, style. Truth be told, I'm surprised Rollins doesn't ratchet up the theatrics to an Ozzie Smith-level of hotdogging with the flips and other stuff.

Better yet, maybe Rollins could do a series of cartwheels around the bases after a home run. Why not? I've seen it before. After a particularly meaningful home run in a wiffle ball game at the ol' backyard diamond on Wilson Drive, my friend John performed a cartwheel as he reached each base. The cool thing about this "trot" was that even as a high schooler (as John was at the time) he was still quite a bit bigger than Jimmy Rollins. So to see a young man like John able to pull off these acrobatics was a sight to behold.

Sure, it was a bit over the top, but it was a really big home run. Still, if Rollins doesn't want to do the cartwheels, maybe we can settle for an interpretive dance or something.

Still, the old-school baseball establishment will continue to look down on fun of any kind because it is "disrespectful" to the game and "shows up" the opposition. Never mind that these are the same people that are descendents of baseball's other traditions such as an industry-wide ban on players of specific races... don't get these same folks started up on Sabremetrics.

Yeah, baseball has (and had) bigger problems than whether or not Jose Reyes enjoys hitting home runs. Heaven forbid if someone enjoys their job.

Going, going, gone?

So far, the 2008 season has bordered on "magical" for Phillies' all-everything second baseman Chase Utley. Last night he slugged his Major League-leading 21st home run in the first inning and then chipped in with a pair of singles and two diving catches to save the Phillies' 5-4 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. More than that, Utley smashed a homer in the fifth straight game to tie the franchise record for homers in consecutive games. Better yet, it was the second time this season that Utley has homered in five straight games.

More?

Well, check it out:

• He is second in the league with 38 extra-base hits.
• He is hitting .419 (13 for 31) with seven homers and 20 RBIs in his last eight games.
• He is second in the National League with 52 RBIs, runs with 48 and slugging percentage at .680.
• He is fourth in the league in OPS at 1.083.
• He is 11th in the league in hitting at .320 and doubles with 16.

Moreover, Utley leads all National Leaguers in the balloting for the All-Star Game and has to be one of the top two early candidates for the MVP voting even though there are nearly four months left in the season.

If Utley weren't (intentionally?) the worst interview in all of professional sports, maybe we'd be witnessing a Jeter and/or A-Rod in the making. You know, a HUGE superstar...

Nevertheless, it has been Utley's home-run hitting that has been the most eye-opening facet of his game this season. With 21 bombs, he has already equaled last season's total and can tie his tally from 2006 with one more blast. Prior to that, Utley slugged a career-best 32 in 2005, which is right about where the Phillies' brass had him pegged when he was drafted in the first round out of UCLA in June of 2000.

"I didn't envision him being able to get up around 30," assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. "As he matured and developed more strength in his hands and forearms, he generated more bat speed. That was the element we were light on."

Charlie Manuel, one of the game's most notable hitting gurus, gets as giddy as a schoolgirl when talking about Utley's smooth, compact and pure swing. After last night's game he talked about the alacrity in which line drives rocket off his second-baseman's bat and how those liners seem to be just high enough to find the seats beyond the right-field fence.

“He’s hitting line drives high. He’s hitting it hard and they’re high enough to go out,” Manuel said, noting that statistics like batting average and home runs usually have a way of evening out in the end, as well as his theory that “a home run is nothing more than a well-hit fly ball that lands on the other side of the fence.”

So what about those "well-hit fly balls?" How does wiry and sinewy Chase Utley rip all those homers?

Maybe it's the ballpark?

According to the great Hit Tracker web site, Utley is tied for the Major League lead for "Lucky Homers" with Alfonso Soriano, and is third in the Majors in "Just Enough" blasts. Based on the way the good folks at Hit Tracker crunch the numbers and figure in all the variables, Utley probably should have just a maximum of 16 homers.

Sixteen home runs on June 2 is a total that would be second in the National League and certainly nothing to sneeze at. But perhaps a bigger factor is that 16 of Utley's 21 homers have come in Citizens Bank Park, though two of his "Just Enough" homers have come on the road in Cincinnati and Milwaukee.

Still, Manuel probably says it best:

"If we didn’t have Chase Utley we wouldn’t be where we’re at," Manuel said.

Anti-establishment Phillies buck trends

I love trends. Just love ‘em. I love trends so much that I sometimes even take the time to figure out who is following the so-called conventional wisdom and who is not. Better yet, in my anti-establishment ethos that I have been honing since I first discovered[1] The Ramones, The Clash and Minor Threat when I was 13, I knee-jerkily give credence to those who buck the trends no matter what the trend is. Certainly those that defy conventional wisdom not only have seen the errors of following the herd, but also they are much more hip and astute than those who blindly follow what everyone else is doing.

But more than a "why can't I be different just like everyone else" screed, or a paradoxical "sometimes no style is a style" it's fair to surmise that the non-trendsetters always end up creating the new trend. After all, one day Tito Puente will be dead and you'll tell all your friends, "Oh yeah, I've been listening to him for years and he's fabulous."

And, yes, I know Tito Puente is already dead. However, Tito was clearly one of the best unconventional guest stars on The Simpsons. Don't argue because I'm right.

Anyway, there seems to be a new trend in Major League Baseball, and no, it has nothing to do with bloused pants and high stirrups or substituting sunflower seeds and gummy bears for Skoal and a plug of Red Man. Nope, this anti-trend is more sinister and very well could upset the very balance of power in Major League Baseball...

Or something like that.

Get to the point? OK. Here it is.

According to a column scribbled out by the great Thomas Boswell of The Washington Post, home run totals have dropped in Major League Baseball for the second straight season. According to the column, last spring homer totals were down eight percent, but this spring - in the wake of The Mitchell Report - home run totals have dipped 10.4 percent from last spring.

If the trend holds there will be 4,442 homers hit this year, which is a 17.5 percent drop from 2006.

Certainly there are a lot of reasons for the home run dip that can be assumed by followers of the game and/or meteorology. For one, some claim the cooler early-season temperatures have kept more baseballs in the park. Others suggest that baseball's drug-testing program is finally working. As Orioles' president Andy MacPhail told Boswell:

"A 'cold spring' doesn't account for an almost 20 percent drop in home runs in two years," MacPhail said. "It's foolish not to think there's some correlation to more drug testing and all the [legal] attention [on steroids]. There are still people out there trying to cheat. There will always be people who try to get around the rules one way or another. But there are not as many now."

More interestingly, Nationals pitching coach Randy St. Claire told Boswell that he has noticed a difference in the shape and size of the ballplayers around the league.

"Just say that guys look like ballplayers again, like they looked when I was growing up, not like musclemen," said St. Claire.

But before this descends into an essay about Bud Selig's drug policy and the cleaning up of the national pastime, let's take a gander at those who are bucking the trend.

Ladies and gentleman, the rebels of MLB, the Philadelphia Phillies...

So far, the Phillies have launched 71 home runs, which is the most in all of baseball. The Marlins are second with 66 and the Rangers are third with 60.

Yes, the Phillies have out-homered all American League teams by a substantial margin.

Of course part of that has to do with the fact that the Phillies play in the friendliest hitting park in all of baseball. After all, the Phillies have blasted 38 homers in 24 home games. However, the 33 road homers also lead the Majors in that sub-category.

But more telling is the fact that the Phillies hit just 56 home runs through April and May of the 2007 season. With a full week to go in the month, the Phillies will have quite a substantial increase in the power totals from a year ago.

More interesting is another trend - the Phillies have three players on pace to crush 40 homers.

When's the last time three Phillies hit at least 40 homers in a season?

Uh, how about never. In fact, only six different guys have the franchise's 11 40-homer seasons. Four of those have come since 2003. Actually, last season was just the second time in team history that three players hit at least 30 homers in a season.

So while the trends shift one way, the Phillies go another.

How punk rock is that?

More: Tom Boswell - "There's Something in the Air Other than the Ball Headed for the Fence"

---

[1] Yes, discovered. Just like Columbus "discovered" the Americas. Yeah, like they wouldn't have found that anyway.

I want my two dollars

Don’t you just love it when you find money in your pocket? I found $2 in the pocket of my pants this morning and I have to admit it was a nice little treat. Sure, $2 will barely get me a half-gallon of gas, but it adds up. I’ll take it. Interestingly, the two, one-dollar bills look weathered and worn as if they went through the wash. My money has been laundered.

Be that as it may, Brett Myers appears to have gotten a little sullied up in the fifth inning. After four straight goose eggs, the Nats finally solved him in the fifth with four runs on three hits, an error and a hit batsmen. The big hit of the inning – in my estimation – was when pitcher Matt Chico laced a fat curveball to center field for a one-out hit.

Otherwise, Myers threw a lot of pitches to the barrels of bats. When Myers fell behind, the Nats made him pay… that’s the way it goes.

Myers’ line: 5 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 HBP, 86 pitches.

Let’s call it auspicious.

Often, it’s the little things when things begin to unravel. Ryan Madson came in to relieve Myers and allowed a two-run homer with two outs to Lastings Milledge following an infield single from Cristian Guzman.

It was a close play, but it led to trouble.

Trouble is what the Phillies are in right now after Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell and Pedro Feliz followed up Chase Utley’s leadoff homer with strikeouts.