Someone cue Tom Petty

WASHINGTON – the first thing I thought of as I pushed myself out of bed this morning was, “OK, where do I get coffee?” The second thought was, “Look, there’s the Starbucks. Could a place that sells Gatorade be nearby?”

After that I wondered if Courier Post columnist Kevin Roberts had made it back to Philadelphia OK. Kevin, you see, came to The District last night to write all about the Phillies’ comeback victory over the Nationals, which pushed them to 1½ games of the lead in the NL East. After going down to the clubhouse to discuss matters with the winning team and then back to the press box to compose his story, Kevin was scheduled to take the 3 a.m. train from Union Station back to Philadelphia. And since he wrapped things up a little after midnight, a few of us thought we’d take Kev into town to help him wile away the time until his train arrived.

Who would have guessed there was no all-night bingo parlor in all of Washington, D.C.?

Nevertheless, Kevin made it to Union Station with time to spare.

But the really big question that was baffling me the most this morning is one that supporters of the Philadelphia Phillies are not asking themselves – at least they aren’t asking themselves with any great concern (nor am I).

The question:

What in the Sam Hill is wrong with the New York Mets?

In the midst of a freefall of monumental proportions, the Mets, as Phillies’ fans are well aware, have lost six of their last seven and seven of their last nine. During that span, the Mets’ lead over the Phillies in the East has shrunk from 6½ games to 1½ heading into Friday’s games.

Mets’ skipper Willie Randolph delivered one of the understatements of the season when talking about the latest loss with reporters last night.

“We're definitely making it tough on ourselves, huh?”

Indeed. But not without some help. Last night’s game – as viewed from the press box at RFK on MLB.com’s Gamecast – seemed as surreal as it was dramatic. The Mets rallied to take a three-run the lead in the ninth when Marlon Anderson hit a bases-loaded triple with two outs, only to give those runs back in the bottom of the ninth when reliever Jorge Sosa could not close it out.

What? No Billy Wagner? Nope, according to reports ol’ Billy had back spasms and couldn’t take the ball.

Could Wagner finally be helping the Phillies get to the playoffs?

Anyway, it looks as if the Mets are getting a little tight and even the front-office types are feeling it. According to a story in Sports Illustrated, owner Jeff Wilpon is casting the blame for the Mets’ recent play on… well, everyone.

“I'm disappointed with the way the team is performing overall, and that's everyone, top to bottom,” Wilpon told Sports Illustrated. “I'm disappointed in Omar (Minaya), Willie, the players ... that's everyone. We shouldn't be in this position. But we are. We've got to fight our way out and pull this out.”

But no one has been able to explain the basic, simple question:

What in the Sam Hill is wrong with the New York Mets?

To figure it out, I put in a call to Mets’ pre- and post-game host on SNY, Matt Yallof. When Matt and I get to the bottom of this issue, I will report back right here.

The ‘pen is mighty? While the Mets are preparing to roll over and expose their pink, rounded belly for the Phillies to claw apart, it’s interesting to note that the Phils are making their sprint for the finish line thanks largely to the bullpen.

Yes, the Posh Spice-thin bullpen.

To follow up Tuesday’s 14-inning victory in which the relievers tossed 11 frames one-run ball, the ‘pen went seven scoreless innings last night against the Nats. Of course the memory of Monday night’s near debacle where the relievers almost coughed up an 11-run lead, but since then they have been pretty good. In the last three games the bullpen has allowed just two runs in 21 2/3 innings.

Nevertheless, 21 2/3 innings is a lot of work in just three games… especially at this point of the season.

Closing up shop In the past on these pages, I have opined about Washington’s RFK Stadium and the time I spent there in my youth. Though we could never go to see the Redskins play in the ol’ ballpark (the waiting list for tickets was something like 155 years), I can recall in vivid detail of watching the Grateful Dead and the NASL’s Washington Diplomats.

But not to bore any with more rhapsodizing over the last weekend of major league sports at RFK, I’ll turn that chore over to The Washington Post’s Tom Boswell, who writes about the lovable dump.

And it is a dump.

Finally… Chris and Julie Stover of Lancaster, Pa. finally added a girl to the Stover/Gerfin/Finger brood. The little lady arrived this morning and has yet to receive a name, but her uncle (me!) and the rest of the clan are giddy about her birth and hope that she can show her big brothers and boy cousins who the boss is.

And here we thought Chris couldn’t make a girl. Good work, big guy!

Choking in the Big Apple

So here’s the question: Are the Mets choking or are the Phillies about to take the NL East away from them?

How about both?

What about the Padres? Can they keep up their winning ways in order to fend off the Phillies in the wild-card race?

Will the Phillies ever lose again?

The short answer…

Who knows.

We’ll attempt to answer some of those questions, but first let’s figure out what in the hello is going on with the Philadelphia baseball team. Last night’s 7-4 victory in 14 innings[1] over the nearly-X’d out St. Louis Cardinals pushed the Phillies to 1½ games behind the Mets in the East and kept them 1½ games behind the Padres in the wild-card race. What makes this crazy is that the Phillies have picked up five games in five days against the free-falling Mets, who, as they begin to feel their drawers bunch up, called a team meeting prior to going out and getting whacked by the Nats at RFK last night.

Needless to say, that meeting could not have been fun. Anyone who has seen the visitors’ clubhouse at RFK can report that it is a very unpleasant room. First of all, the stench of laundry, sweat and shower mold permeates through the dank and cramped hallways. Then there is the feeling that the walls are going to close in on you kind of like that trash compactor scene in Star Wars. I swear I’ve seen a big, futuristic-looking snake slither out of the shower area and into the make-shift kitchenette.

The worst part about that clubhouse at RFK, of course, is how cramped it is. A player can barely get changed into his uniform without knocking over the buffet perched precariously on a small ledge near the big-screen TV and fake-leather couch. Being in that room is almost as bad as sitting in coach of a trans-continental flight with the sudden, screaming urge to take a leak. Only you can't get up because the two clowns sitting next to you on the left are fast asleep. And because they have banned water bottles on flights, you are SOL in trying to find relief that way.

So imagine having a team meeting in such a place. How bad must it make a team feel that while in the throes of a crippling losing streak, they have to sit in such a place and talk about how awful things are going? It's like psychoanalysis with Ted Nugent. No wonder the Nationals whipped them again to extend the Mets’ freefall.

Meanwhile, in the posh new space in St. Louis at ballpark that was opened just last year, the Phillies reportedly spent the time before the 14-inning victory over the Cardinals watching Wedding Crashers.

There is no truth that after the game, Aaron Rowand proclaimed: “Cheesesteaks and baseball… THAT’S WHAT PHILADELPHIA DOES!”

But such a thing wouldn’t be extraordinary.

Anyway, according to the math wizards at Sports Club Stats, the Phillies have a 42.9 percent chance to make the playoffs this season. If I had to guess (and my guessed change with the wind) it will take 90 wins for the Phillies to get into the playoffs.

With seven of the final 11 games against the Nationals and six of that 11 at the cozy hometown bandbox, 90 could be very doable.

Gone and probably forgotten The Phillies will play the Nationals in the final baseball games at RFK Stadium this weekend, which is a pretty good thing. Clearly, as mentioned above, the old ballpark on the banks of the muddy Anacostia River has seen better days.

Next season the Nationals will play in a new ballpark near the DC Naval Yard along the banks of the Potomac River, which, friends report, will offer stunning views of the city’s skyline and will be a major upgrade from RFK.

As if a shoebox isn’t an upgrade.

Anyway, I’m sure I’ll wax on about RFK this weekend because that’s kind of what I do. Apparently the plan is to demolish the old stadium as soon as the DC United builds its new arena.

---

[1] this was a game in which the Phillies finally decided to hit the ball at 1 a.m. … come on guys, help us out. We have to stay up late and watch these games. How about an early big lead so that we can… wait, you guys already did that. OK. Never mind. Just do whatever it is you do and I'll get back to my late-night channel flipping.

Just waking up and everything has still gone crazy

After getting home at 3 a.m. after being at a baseball game that lasted 14 innings and nearly five hours, it’s safe to say that I’m a bit fried today. But rest is for the week, right…

Man, do I ever need a nap.

Anyway, because I’m struggling to string together cohesive sentences this afternoon, I’ll just ramble on with a few observations about the Phillies and the latest from the sports world.

• After last night’s win over the Nationals the Phillies have a 24.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. Really? Yes, really. At least that’s math according to Ken Roberts, who created an “Odds of making the playoffs” web site.

Here’s what Ken does: after every game – and we mean every game – the odds of a teams’ chances to make the playoffs are calculated and posted on his site. Then, a glimpse into the future is proffered showing not only how the odds change if the Phillies win or lose their next game, but how the odds change pending every result on the full schedule of games.

Yes, it’s good stuff and you should check it out by clicking here.

• To start it off, I had never seen a game go from a sure end to tied up and headed for extra innings like the way last night’s ninth inning played out. For those who didn’t see it, speedy shortstop Jimmy Rollins raced around the bases when his relatively routine fly ball just short of the warning track in left-center field was jarred loose when outfielders Ryan Church and Ryan Langerhans bumped in to each other. Standing at third, Rollins raced home when Church’s relay throw skipped away from shortstop Felipe Lopez to force extra innings.

The most surprising thing about Rollins’ dash around the bases? That it wasn’t ruled an inside-the-park home run by the hometown official scorer.

• Meanwhile, when Ryan Howard hits a home run, he really wallops it. Not only do his homers sound different than other players’, there really is no doubt that they are going out – he doesn’t hit too many that scrape into the first row.

• No one with the Phillies will say it -- though Charlie Manuel’s body language was downright funereal -- but Chase Utley’s broken hand is just about the worst thing that could happen to the team right now. Forget about his statistics and the fact that Utley is an MVP candidate, and his hard-nosed style of play… it was because of Utley that the Phillies were able to stay in the playoff race despite injuries to Freddy Garcia, Tom Gordon, Brett Myers, Jon Lieber and Ryan Howard.

Yes, losing Utley is very significant. And that just might be the understatement of the year.

• The Phillies gave out a Cole Hamels bobblehead figurine last night and had a sold-out crowd. Here’s my question: What is the allure of that stuff? I can understand baseball cards and other memorabilia-type collectibles (kind of), but why are bobbleheads still popular? Just chalk it up to the every growing pile of things I don’t get.

On another note, last year (or maybe the year before, I forget) the Nationals gave out a Chad Cordero bobblehead figurine at a game at RFK. Within hours of bringing it home my son ripped the head clean off the body and for the past year or so there has been the head of Chad Cordero, complete with that geeky unbent brim of his cap, staring up from the bottom of the toy box in our living room. Perhaps that’s the appeal of the bobblehead doll… ripping the heads clean off.

• Speaking of ripping the head clean off and one man’s inability to understand events occurring in the world, I’m still attempting to grasp just what the hell happened at this year’s Tour de France. Frankly, I haven’t been able to come up with anything other than some non-sequitors and random ideas.

For instance:

-- Perhaps it’s because I am an American and believe in a persons’ right to due process, but I just don’t understand how a man who never failed a drug test or violated any laws or rules of the sport could be bounced from an event he was about to win. Look, I know never failing a drugs test isn’t the best argument and I know all about Michael Rasmussen’s reputation, but if the Tour, the UCI and whatever other governing body is attempting to destroy cycling really disliked the dude and had valid reasons to boot him from the race, they should have never allowed him to start.

Now look what they have on their hands. It’s nothing more than a race that no one views as legitimate.

-- I always am amused by American sportswriters whose idea of exercise is actually getting up to manually turn the channels on the television opining about cycling. I also do not understand how one can legitimately write about sports without a basic understand of training and performance-enhancing drugs. Get these people out of the press box now, because writing intelligently about sports doesn’t really have much to do with the games any more.

-- Alexandre Vinokourov? Wow. Who would have thought the Tour could have sunk lower than that fiasco?

-- Along those lines everyone is quick to point out how “dirty” cycling is. But here is a fact: if MLB and the NFL acted like the UCI and the Tour de France, there would be more than 1,000 new players in those leagues tomorrow. It seems as if all cycling officials have to do is point at a guy and he's out. Forget facts and protocol. The players in MLB and the NFL should be thankful every day that they have a union that supports them.

-- Ivan Basso, Jan Ullrich, Michael Rasmussen were all booted from the Tour de France this year despite never failing a drug test. Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield and Mark McGwire have admitted to using performance-enhancing substances and got new contracts.

Which sport is “dirty” again?

-- I’ve been asked if the current scandal in France will affect Floyd Landis’ case at all. My knee-jerk reaction is, “No, because they are mutually exclusive. Floyd’s case has to do with one specific test from one stage of last year’s race. This year’s scandal, they say, is about the ‘culture of doping.’”

Since I don’t believe Floyd is a part of that culture, nor do I believe he is a doper, I didn’t think it has anything to do with him.

But upon retrospect, maybe it does in the always fickle court of public opinion. Maybe Floyd suddenly becomes guilty because he rides a bike and won the Tour de France?

Either way it makes me happy to be a runner instead of a baseball player or cyclist.

-- Meanwhile, other folks have asked me why they just don’t cancel the rest of the Tour. What’s the point anymore? It’s a valid question, but the answer comes down to the bottom line. The rest of the ride to Paris is economical, complete with all of the pomp, circumstance and corporate sponsorships.

They don’t put those corporate logos on their uniforms because they look nice.

The reason the Tour continues is the same reason why Bud Selig doesn’t go all French on Barry Bonds and pull the cheater from the field. It’s why the Giants re-signed Bonds – he makes a lot of people money...

Especially people like WADA president Dick Pound.

Integrity? Ha!

Fearless forecast

Let’s preface this by noting that I am not a pessimist. I tend to look at the bright side of things and like to believe that everything will work out just the way it’s supposed to. The result of things might not be the most desirable turn of events, but oh well. Deal with it, live your life and keep moving forward.

Yet at the same time I’ve learned that if you play with fire you just might get burned. Or, if something seems to occur over and over again despite the best intentions to stop it, well, that’s just the way it’s going to be.

So that’s why I’m picking a team other than the Phillies to win the NL East this year. In fact, my crystal ball says the playoff drought will continue, too. And no, my reason has nothing to do with how good the Mets are or that the Phillies need some help in the bullpen. It all has to do with 2003 and 2004.

In 2003 as most fans remember, the Phillies brought in Jim Thome and Kevin Millwood. They also signed Pat Burrell to a $50 million extension where he told some writers that the Phillies were the team to end the Braves’ streak of division titles. But by August the team was ready to beat up the manager and the pitching coach before finally falling apart in Florida during the last week of the season.

Then there was 2004 when the Phillies brought in Billy Wagner, Roberto Hernandez, Tim Worrell and had Rheal Cormier coming off one the best set-up seasons ever to join Millwood, Eric Milton, Brett Myers on a solid rotation with Thome and Burrell. That team had 95-wins written all over it with a bullpen that owned a thousand career saves.

By June, though, one of those relievers punched out the pitching coach and the manager was fired by the end of the season.

So in essence, the reason why the Phillies won’t win the NL east this year is because the 2003 and 2004 teams were better than this one.

Not exactly scientific logic, but until it’s proven they actually can do it I’m not going to stick my hand in the fire.

I could get burned.

Anyway, here it is:

NL East
Mets
Phillies
Braves
Marlins
Nationals

NL Central
Cardinals
Cubs
Brewers
Astros
Reds
Pirates

NL West
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Padres
Giants
Rockies

Playoffs: Mets vs. D’backs; Cardinals vs. Dodgers

Playoffs?

They got out the slide rules, spread sheets, calculators with all of those funny-looking symbols and statistics to crunch the numbers and decided that the Phillies will win the NL East in 2007.

Phew! On to the playoffs.

Kidding aside – and I kid the “stat geeks” because, well, why not? – the good folks at Baseball Prospectus determined that the Phillies will win the NL East with 87 victories, edging the New York Mets by two games and Atlanta Braves by five. In fact, Baseball Prospectus predicts that the 87 victories will be the second-highest total in the National League (one game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks) sixth-best in the Majors.

Here are BP’s playoff teams:

National League
East: Phillies
Central: Brewers
West: Diamondbacks
Wild card: Padres

American League
East: Red Sox
Central: Twins
West: Angels
Wild card: Yankees

Based on this, the Phillies would play the Padres in the NLDS.

But as White Sox GM Ken Williams told the Chicago Tribune about BP’s predictions:

“That’s a good sign for us, because usually they're wrong about everything regarding our dealings.”

I won’t make my formal predictions until Opening Day eve, but here’s where I’m leaning:

National League
East: Mets
Central: Cardinals
West: Dodgers
WC: Phillies

American League
East: Red Sox
Central: Twins
West: Angels
WC: Yankees

That was easy enough. Let's get on to the champagne-soaked celebration.

***
Reports coming out of Clearwater indicate that either Adam Eaton or Jon Lieber will start the season in the bullpen. This information comes after the Phillies lost Justin Germano to the Padres who claimed him off waivers, and sent right-hander Brian Sanches to Triple-A Ottawa.

Germano was a little upset about heading to San Diego. According to the Associated Press’ Rob Maaddi:

“I'm pretty shocked,” Germano said soon after assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. informed him of the move. “I thought I was right there. I had one bad inning. I knew they didn't expect me to be perfect every time out.”

Meanwhile, players’ union head Donald Fehr will be in Clearwater to address the Phillies’ camp. Likely topics include drug testing and the World Baseball Classic.

***
Much has been made about the 76ers’ 50-point loss to the Houston Rockets on Sunday, which is the fourth-worst loss in team history. Needless to say, I didn’t watch the game and haven’t paid much attention to the aftermath, but here’s a thought: It’s reasonable to think that the Rockets could have played an entire half without scoring a single basket and still won the game.

Hey, they were up by 50!

***
Embattled Tour de France champ Floyd Landis will be near his old stomping grounds this weekend as part of his tour to raise funds for his legal defense.

As an aside, in researching the latest information on Landis, the case and his tour I participated in a message board conversation about the controversy before being attacked by someone who dubbed himself as “Pedrohead.” Besides being turned off by the whole message board experience, I’ve come to learn the identity of the character with the very apt nom de guerre, and let’s just say, “it figures.”

In the interest of full disclosure, my message board handle is, creatively, “jrfinger.” Do you think anyone will know it’s me?

***
Finally, the presentation from author Eric Schlosser at F&M College last night was quite interesting, though he didn’t stray too far from the information presented in Fast Food Nation. Nevertheless, a good time was had by all.

It's Game 7!

What did we learn from Game 6?

How about that the Mets’ bullpen – excluding Billy Wagner – is the perfect anecdote to the Cardinals’ offense. Much has been made in the aftermath of the 5 1/3 innings and two-hit outing by rookie John Maine, but the Mets’ three-headed monster of Chad Bradford, Guillermo Mota and Aaron Heilman gave up two hits 2 2/3 innings before yielding to Wagner in the ninth.

Better yet, much kudos has been heaped on Mets’ skipper Willie Randolph for finding the right mix with his ‘pen. Randolph got Maine out of there at the right time as the rookie teetered on the edge all night long (he walked four and escaped a big jam in the first), and seemed to have learned a lot from Joe Torre during those runs with the Yankees.

Back then, when Randolph was a coach on Torre’s staff, the Yankees did it with their bullpen. Yes, they always had a formidable lineup and strong starting pitching, but those great Yankees’ teams were built from the bullpen forward. Mariano Rivera, obviously, is the focal point, but Mike Stanton, Jeff Nelson, Ramiro Mendoza, and Graeme Lloyd were the cogs in the machine.

Plus, it always comes down to pitching. Sorry I can’t be any more insightful than that. Pitching and defense gets it done.

In that regard, I believe we found an ex-Phillie struggling worse than Scott Rolen.

Billy Wagner, come on down…

Wagner allowed two more runs in the ninth inning in Game 6, including a double to right from the slow-swinging Rolen, who may have saved his starting position for Game 7 with the hit. Never mind that Wagner sped up Rolen’s bat so that he could actually pull a fastball, or that the closer was not in a save situation – though he turned the game into one – and was just getting some work in, his playoff performances have been atrocious.

In six outings, Wagner has given up runs in three games for a 9.53 ERA. He’s also allowed 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings, though he has saved three games.

The problem, it seems, is Wagner’s fastball. It just doesn’t seem to have its old velocity or movement, which isn’t too uncommon for this point of the year. Wagner has been in 76 games since April, though his all-important strikeouts-per-nine innings (11.7) was up significantly this season. That’s probably why Tony La Russa believes Wagner will be a different pitcher if he gets into Game 7 with a one-run or two-run lead.

That’s what Wagner’s hoping for. He still wants the ball.

“This is what you dream of,” he told reporters after Game 6. “You want to go out. You dream of pitching the ninth and getting bum-rushed and going to the World Series.

“These are the games that define your year. You want to go out there and get it done.”

Still struggling…
Rolen had a chance in the first inning to knock out Maine and potentially win the game for the Cardinals, but he harmlessly flied out to right field. In fact, Rolen has had a lot of harmless at-bats despite the four-game hitting streak he’s carrying. Though the gold glover hasn’t been striking out much (three in two games during the playoffs), he hasn’t driven in a run, either.

Perhaps La Russa will place Rolen seventh in the batting order for Game 7? Perhaps he will find a spot for Scott Spiezio and So Taguchi in the lineup. The Cardinals could be tougher with Juan Encarnacion and Preston Wilson available for late-game pinch-hitting duty.

And another thing
Those white, pinstripe uniforms the Mets wore in Game 6 look sharp. It’s so 1986.

It's the playoffs!

Prior to the pivotal Game 5 of the NLCS, St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz called out top MVP candidate, Albert Pujols, essentially writing, “Do something to save us, Albert!” in his earnest, polite Midwestern way. After all, the fans in St. Louis don’t stand for any of that negative malarkey. In fact, they are tamer than the Baltimore Orioles fans, who when a player fails to put down a sacrifice bunt, all shout in unison, “Awwww! Rats! OK, good try. Let’s hustle, Birds!”

That’s not what they say in Philadelphia. Or New York. Or Boston. Or Atlanta – because they aren’t there.

Anyway, Bernie (I can’t spell his last name without looking or copy and pasting and I’m drinking my pre-workout coffee and Red Bull right now so I’m typing with one, shaky hand) rightly wrote that if the 83-win Cardinals are going to beat the Mets and go to the World Series, then it’s all going to fall on Pujols’ broad shoulders. Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, after all, are weakened by surgeries, injuries and a long season. Scott Spiezio can’t continue his torrid pace – someone will figure him out sooner or later.

It’s up to Albert.

So when Pujols smacked that clutch homer off Tom Glavine – the guy who “had nothing” in Game 1 – it looks as if Pujols either read what Bernie wrote, knew how obvious Bernie’s words were since Rolen and Edmonds were being out-hit by Yadier Molina, or was surprised that the Mets and Glavine decided to pitch to him with those stiffs in the lineup behind him.

Nevertheless, the Cardinals are only one more victory at Shea Stadium from going to their second World Series in three season. According to the very astute and blog-reader Jayson Stark, this trip to the World Series would be the most improbable for the Cardinals.

Why? Try 83 victories, pal. That’s just two more than .500 and two fewer than the Phillies. Plus, to get to the Series the Cards would have beaten a 97-victory club in the NLCS. That’s pretty crazy, as Stark writes.

Cards in 6
Let’s do some limb climbing (always fun!) and predict a Cardinals victory in Game 6 tonight. Why? I think Chris Carpenter – the 2005 Cy Young Award winner and strong candidate for the award in 2006 (Brandon Webb will win) – is a little better than the Mets’ John Maine.

Nothing against Maine, who held hitters to a .212 batting average in 90 innings this season, but how much do the Mets wish they had Pedro at even 50 percent right now? Pedro, one of the best six-inning pitchers in baseball history, could do wonders coming out of the ‘pen for a couple of frames.

Meanwhile, Monday’s rainout and the flight back to Shea might be an advantage for the Cardinals. Really? Yeah, well ballplayers are creatures of habit and getting rid of a travel day for a getaway day – or night since Fox has been starting the games close to 8:30 p.m. – the Cardinals can pretend it’s just another routine trip to LaGuardia in mid-June or something.

Hey, play the mind game. Anything for a psychological advantage. After all, the Cards only won 83 games this season.

Good stuff
I’m not sure how many people were able to read the report by Mike Radano, Kevin Roberts and Rowan University since it’s only The Courier-Post, but anyone looking for something good to read about the local baseball club should check out the project.

Here it is:

The Rowan University report (PDF)

Kevin Roberts: Wins help mask PR bungling by Phillies

Mike Radano: Phillies flunk PR 101

Radano: The Phillies want problems to fade away

Radano: Time is a factor with Phillies fans

Radano: Phillies need a plan

It's the playoffs (TV edition)!

I am not a multi-tasker. If I’m going to do one thing well then I have to concentrate and buckle down – that means no distractions or several different interests pulling me in different directions. No, I don’t have an attention-span problem – at least not clinically.

Maybe that’s why I never really pay attention to the announcers in a baseball game. At least that’s the case for a game I’m trying to focus on. To me, the announcers are background fodder or the digitalized musak heard in a doctor’s office or elevator.

I’m not saying the people who have those jobs aren’t valuable or that they don’t work hard, because they do. For the Phillies, Chris Wheeler is one of those first-to-arrive-and-last-to-leave types of guys. He studies the game like crazy and it shows when one chats with him. That said, I just don’t listen. I can’t if I want to understand what’s happening in the game.

Hey, I’m funny that way.

That’s why when I heard Fox fired Steve Lyons I just shrugged. I can’t say I’m too familiar with his work. Oh sure, I know all about Steve Lyons – the first foul ball I ever caught (Memorial Stadium in Baltimore, Red Sox vs. Orioles in June ’86) Lyons hit it, and I’ve heard stories about his wacky antics from his playing days. I also know he works with the Dodgers broadcast team with Charlie Steiner and the great Jay Johnstone.

But as far as Lyons’ work on Fox… I missed it.

Nevertheless, I read the story about his ouster and what he said, etc. To me it sounds like Fox was looking for an excuse to run him out, which is fine. They already have Lou Piniella working in the booth for the ALCS – what do they need Lyons for?

Some people ask the same questions about Tim McCarver, and it’s not just the fans either. There are media critics and columnists out there who pay attention to McCarver’s (and others’) analysis and wax on about it.

Really? What a waste of time. If you are a columnist or a so-called sports expert and you need Tim McCarver’s expertise in order to enjoy a baseball game on TV better, maybe baseball isn’t for you. It’s kind of like being assigned to read a great book, but only looking at the Cliff Notes.

So Steve Lyons was fired by Fox, huh? Is that why the Tigers swept the A’s?

Maybe I should clarify something – I do listen to Vin Scully when I tune into a Dodgers’ game. But when I do that, I’m going specifically to listen to Vin, not watch the game. In a different way, I like to listen to Jerry Remy on Red Sox broadcasts, though I’m not interested in what Remy has to say. I just like his New England accent.

That Joe Buck has a nice-sounding voice, too, but I can't not think of Jon Voight when I hear his name.

As for Game 4 of the NLCS, it looks as if the Mets got just what they needed – a innings-eating outing from a starter to give the bullpen a break. They also will get a trip back to Shea, which means the pressure is on the Cardinals for tonight’s Game 5.

The Glavine vs. Weaver on three-days rest match up should be intriguing.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are at Club Med relaxing and waiting to get back to work.

Haven't we seen this before?

It looks as if Tony La Russa figured out what to do with Scott Rolen, which makes one wonder if he read a few of the previous entries here… hey, it could happen. I know a player or two who said they read this blog.

Then again, I haven't been punched in the face by a player yet, so I guess they were just blowing smoke.

Anyway, Rolen batted sixth and played his typical third base in Saturday’s Game 3 rout which put the Cardinals and their 83-regular season victories just two more wins from the World Series and a rematch of the 1968 Series. Scott Spiezio, Rolen's replacement at third base in two post-season games also started (left field) and contrubted with his second, two-run triple in as many games.

But Rolen snapping his big, post-season slump with a walk and a single mixed in with his Brooks-Robinson-and-Mike-Schmidt-all-rolled-into-one defense isn’t even half the story. Apparently, as I assumed (yeah, there’s that pronoun again. Hey, it’s my blog!) Rolen and La Russa may need some counseling.

Gee, no one saw that coming.

Jim Salisbury, for my money (what there is of it) the most interesting baseball writer out there, rightly analyzed the rift in the Inquirer today and even asked Rolen if he would be interested in a return to Philadelphia. If there is anyone who can offer an astute read on the situation it’s Salisbury since he’s seen it all before. Plus, there are very few writers that I have come across who the players respect more than Salisbury.

But enough of that… let’s get back to Rolen.

Next to Randy Wolf and Doug Glanville, Rolen is the smartest ballplayer I’ve met. However, he’s also the most sensitive. As Salisbury points out, Rolen is high-maintenance. He needs to be kept in the loop and also needs self-assurance and what he deems as fairness. I recall a time where Rolen and Larry Bowa had a long, pre-game meeting because Bowa, looking for a spark, moved Rolen to the No. 2 spot in the batting order. At the same time, Bowa shifted Bobby Abreu over to center field, but with Abreu all the manager did was walk over to his locker and ask him if he was OK with playing center field.

With Rolen, it took a closed-door meeting for a batting order shift.

As one Phillie management type once told me: “Scotty worries about everything. He cares about how the cars are parked in the parking lot… ”

The Phillies, not exactly the most astute in reading situations, placating feelings or being sensitive to others, weren’t too far off here.

Because of that Rolen, like any classic high achieving, high-maintenance person, not only expects a lot out of himself, but he also has high standards for others.

Pardon the dime store psychiatry, but as someone with similar traits – excluding the high achieving part, of course – it’s easy to understand that Rolen needs a lot of understanding. Perhaps that’s why he is the most entertaining player out there. His neurosis is on display constantly from his habits in the batter's box to how he takes the field and his human cannonball style. What makes all that more than shtick is that he can actually play.

I can’t think of a player I’ve ever enjoyed watching more.

But through the neurosis, stubbornness and sensitivity, Rolen has to know he can’t win a battle against La Russa. Come on… he’s smarter than that. It’s not about leverage or public opinion or anything like that. It’s that La Russa is right. Sure, La Russa has an ego as large as every successful baseball man, but he isn’t Larry Bowa. It might be wise for Rolen to get past his natural tendencies and all of that other stuff and try to iron it out with La Russa.

Besides, the Cardinals won both of the playoff games where La Russa benched Rolen.

It's the playoffs!
It may be a knee-jerk reaction, but the Cardinals might have the Mets right where they want them. This series might not be going back to Shea.

Reason? To borrow and paraphrase a political campaign mantra, it’s the pitching, stupid.

When Steve Traschel is your team’s Game 3 starter, there’s trouble. When reliever Darren Oliver gets two (two!) at-bats, there’s trouble. When Oliver is pitching six innings in one game, there’s trouble. When Endy Chavez… well, you get the idea.

The fact of the matter is the Mets’ injuries are just too much to overcome. If they can comeback and win the series, I’ll sing New York’s hosannas, but I just don’t see it happening.

At the same time, I don’t see the Tigers losing the World Series. In that regard, here’s the question I posed a couple of the Phillies writers:

How can the Tigers go from losing 119 games to winning the World Series and the Phillies can only make the playoffs once in the last 23 years?

Anyone?

Apropos...
... of nothing, is it tacky for a media member to dial up other media outlets to "volunteer" his "expertise" on their airwaves? I think so.

It's the playoffs!

So, do I get credit for predicting Billy Wagner’s blown game in Game 2 of the NLCS? Well, I didn’t actually predict it, but I admitted that I rooted for Wagner to blow the save it in Game 1. I can’t figure out why, either, since Billy was always fair to me though I know he was annoyed by me asking him about throwing his slider?

I can’t figure out why he won the Philadelphia chapter of the BBWAA’s “Good Guy” award in 2005, either.

Wait… yeah I can. Never mind.

Nevertheless, Wagner entered last night’s game in the ninth with the score tied and promptly gave up the game-winning home run to So Taguchi. Actually, it wasn’t so prompt. Taguchi failed off four pitches before knocking one into the seats to wreck Wagner and the Mets’ evening. Interestingly, I made a note to myself during that at-bat that Taguchi was right on Wagner’s high fastball and that if he could get his bat out a fraction of a fraction of a second quicker, it was bye-bye Billy.

I’m not making that up – I made a note of it.

I wonder if anyone asked Wagner about his slider last night?

Wagner, as mentioned, was brought into the ninth inning of a tie game – a tactic that a lot of managers use with their closer. Larry Bowa used to do it with Wagner, and so did Charlie Manuel. In fact, Manuel says he views a four-run lead as a save situation even though the criteria for a save indicates otherwise.

I’m on the fence about the closer-in-the-ninth-of-a-tie-game theory. It’s hard to say it’s a good idea or a bad one unless every situation is pored over. However, in the layoffs, it’s always all hands on deck. My guess is that manager Willie Randolph would have used Wagner for a second inning if he would have slipped through the ninth unscathed. Instead, he had to get Wagner out of there so he didn’t rack up the pitches with three more games looming in St. Louis.

Plus, with the Mets’ pitching in the shape its in with all of those injuries, Wagner should be ready to go to work. He’s going to be busy with the five-playoff games in five days.

Meanwhile, on the American League side, it looks like Detroit is going to be able to be able to rest up and set their pitching rotation for the World Series while the two beat-up National League clubs beat up on each other some more.

Speaking of beat up, I guess I don’t know what goes on inside of the mind of manager Tony La Russa. Maybe that guy knows a thing or two about baseball?

Previously, I wrote that it would make more sense for La Russa to slide down struggling All-Star Scott Rolen in the batting order, a la Joe Torre and A-Rod, because Rolen’s glove at third base is just too valuable.

Shows you what I know.

La Russa benched Rolen and used him as a late-inning defensive replacement while Scott Spiezio batted fifth and went 2-for-4 with three RBIs, including a clutch, two-run triple.

When Rolen came in the game to play third in the ninth inning, the first hitter smacked one destined for left field until the six-time gold glover dived to his left – on his bum shoulder, no less – to make a spectacular play to get the out.

So who is going to play La Russa in the movie? Didn’t Tim Robbins play Albert Einstein?

Needless to say, Rolen is pretty peeved. Stubborn, sensitive and proud, it’s unlikely he’s going to get over the snub any time soon. I’ve heard of him to hold long-time grudges for less. However, if Rolen was good enough for La Russa to play every day during the stretch run when the third baseman says his shoulder wasn’t as healthy as it is now, maybe the manager should stand by his man.

About the situation, Rolen told the Post-Dispatch: "This isn't the time or the place to have a personal issue between a player and a manager. I'm going to get ready to play tonight, keep an eye on the game and if I get a chance try to make a difference."

La Russa doesn't think it will be a problem, either.

"I'm not going to create a problem. I can't believe he's going to create the problem. So where's the problem, except he's worried about playing?" he said to the St. Louis paper. "I'm just trying to win the game, buddy."

Then again, Spiezio has a history of getting big hits in big playoff games. Ask the Dusty Baker and the Giants about that.

It's the playoffs!

Based on how Game 1 of the NLCS shook out, the series could turn out to be one of those grinding seven-game series where one player could make a difference. Perhaps that player could be Carlos Beltran, who I'm sure the Cardinals are sick of seeing.

Beltran, of course, had that monster series during the 2004 NLCS in which he nearly single-handidly beat the Cardinals when he was playing for the Astros. Counting those seven games from 2004 and last night’s game, Beltran has homered in five of the last eight playoff games against the Cards for seven RBIs and 13 runs. Beltran is 11-for-28 (.393) in those games, which is odd since he is just a .225 hitter with four homers during 40 regular-season career games against St. Louis.

I guess it’s a playoff thing.

Speaking of playoff things, Scott Rolen’s playoff-swoon continued with an 0-for-3 in Game 1. For those counting, that’s one hit in his last 29 playoff at-bats after hitting that home run off Roger Clemens in Game 7 of the 2004 NLCS. Judging from Rolen’s swing from the vantage point of a comfortable chair in my living room (not Shea Stadium), Rolen’s shoulder still isn’t feeling too good despite his comments to the contrary.

Nevertheless, I don’t think manager Tony La Russa will move Rolen out of the starting lineup because his glove at third base is just too valuable.

Meanwhile, it was a rough night all over for the Cardinals' hitters -- obviously. However, the dearth of hitting was only part of the problem, which, obviously again, Mets' starter Tom Glavine had a lot to do with (7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K). But a couple of base-running gaffes, including Albert Pujols' inexplicable one when getting doubled off first in the fourth inning, were quite costly.

Regardless, something tells me that Pujols will more than make up for his blunder during this series. Call it a hunch.

Other observations
Why was I hoping Billy Wagner would blow the two-run lead in the ninth? I have nothing against Wagner personally or professionally, but for some reason I thought it would have been funny to see him cough one up. Maybe I was thinking about the colorful quotes the scribes would have gleaned from him after the game.

Or maybe I wsa thinking about dozens of writers heading down to the clubhouse doing Wagner impressions...

Based on Glavine and Wagner's work, it looks as if the Mets are trying to come in on a lot of the Cardinals' hitters. I wonder how long that plan will last.

As far as the ALCS goes, will Detroit be able to get the ballpark in shape for the World Series after this weekend? Are the Tigers going to punch their ticket? Is there any way that series goes back to Oakland?

Here's something interesting (and correct) from Buster Olney's blog on ESPN.com:

GM Pat Gillick has yet to make his mark on the Phillies, writes Bill Conlin. I would respectfully disagree: In the last year, the Phillies have dealt Jim Thome and Bobby Abreu and others and shaved an enormous amount of payroll off their roster, and they have turned their clubhouse culture over to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. There is more work to be done, for sure, as Bill writes, but creating that kind of payroll flexibility is not simple.

Detroit Rock City

As you read this sentence, the party should finally be smoldering just south of its apex in Detroit. The Tigers, as it is, still have some work to do and a season to finish. Not that anyone in Philadelphia knows or cares about Detroit and the baseball renaissance that occurred there this season.

It’s a good thing Philadelphia sports fans are so provincial and laser-focused because the sight of Placido Polanco dashing around the field and slapping hands with the fans at Comerica Park with a bottle of champagne in on hand and a smile that spread from ear-to-ear would be enough to make a Philadelphia baseball fan sick.

That’s until the camera panned to Jim Leyland being carried off the field, coupled with the comments that followed from one-time Phillie Todd Jones who told reporters that Leyland was the only manager he played for during his 14-year career that actually made a difference in the standings.

At in the notion that Leyland should he have been carried off the field by Chase Utley and Ryan Howard instead of Sean Casey and Kenny Rogers and it’s enough sickness for some hospitalization.

At least until the playoffs end or the Tigers are eliminated.

For those too wrapped up in the Eagles and Cowboys, the Detroit Tigers, managed by Jim Leyland, sent the vaunted New York Yankees and their considerable offense home for the winter in four games in the ALDS. With just four more victories over the Oakland A’s, the Tigers could go to the World Series.

Not bad for a team that lost 119 games three years ago, averaged more than 96 losses per season for the past decade, and had just two winning seasons since 1988.

How does that team come four victories away from the World Series?

Do I have to say it?

Apparently, Jim Leyland wasn’t good enough to manage the Phillies even though he took the Tigers to 95 wins this season. Apparently the ideas he expressed to president David Montgomery and then GM Ed Wade were just a little too harebrained. Especially the ones about the corner outfielders – remember that? I do. He said the Phillies had too many strikeouts in the corner outfield positions, needed a new center fielder, third baseman and catcher.

Then he went out to the CVS on Broad St. for a pack of smokes only to come back to resume his meeting when Wade told him it would be a good idea to keep his interview date scheduled with the Mets.

Look what happened. The Phillies hired Charlie Manuel, came within a game of the wild card, fired Wade, and hired Pat Gillick. A few months later, Gillick traded right fielder Bobby Abreu, third baseman David Bell, and tried as hard as he could to get left fielder Pat Burrell to waive his no-trade clause. After the World Series, Gillick will allow catcher Mike Lieberthal to limp away as a free agent.

Talk about unoriginal ideas. I wonder if Gillick walked over to the CVS on Broad St. for a pack of smokes.

I may write about baseball and sports for many, many years. Or, Powerball numbers willing, tomorrow could be my last day. Either way, I will never ever forget how hard Leyland campaigned to be the Phillies manager during the winter of 2004. He was as shrewd as any seasoned politician and went above and beyond to the point of kissing babies and returning phone calls. In fact, Leyland wanted the Phillies job so badly that he even returned my phone calls.

Talk about desperate.

Now let’s stop for a minute before this descends into a Leyland-equals-good and Phillies-equals-bad essay. That’s just way too easy and not completely accurate. Surely, Leyland was not the only reason why the Tigers went from 300 losses in three seasons under Alan Trammell to 95-67 and the doorstep of the World Series this year. Actually, there are many reasons why the Tigers were able to turn it around so quickly.

The biggest one? Someone listened to Jim Leyland.

Apparently, Leyland went into his interview with the Tigers and told them what he would do to the team to make it better in very much the same manner he did with Montgomery and Wade. But guess what? The Tigers bought it and look where it got them.

Yes, I will always remember that day sitting in the conference room in Citizens Bank park listening to Leyland talk about what makes a winning baseball team as Wade stood in the doorway privately seething. Leyland, with his resume padded with a World Series title with the Marlins and all of those division titles with the Pirates, acted like a know-it-all questioning him to the very group of people who questioned him for sport in the papers and talk shows, daily. They had turned the fans against the straight-laced GM and here was a potential employee giving them more fodder?

Who did he think he was?

Leyland had a lot of ideas to make the Phillies better on that chilly November afternoon and he didn’t keep too many of them secret. He explained what he thought his job as the manager should be:

“When you have veteran players who buy into your thought process, it eliminates a lot of nitpicking,” he said. “The veterans set the tone. Leadership is production. Putting winning numbers on the board, that's leadership. The manager is supposed to be the leader. That's not ego talking, that's just the way it is. I've said it all my life, you're either the victim or the beneficiary of your players' performance. That's as simple as this job is.”

And what elements make up a good team:

“[It's about] trying to create an atmosphere that's comfortable,” he said. “I'm not as big on chemistry as a lot of other managers. If it works, it's wonderful. I've managed teams that ate together, played together, prayed together, and we got the [crap] kicked out of us, and I managed some that punched each other once in a while and we won. It's getting the best out of talent. They're not all going to like me. Hopefully, they will, but I doubt it. There's nothing wrong with that, as long as you're working toward the same goal -- win.”

Perhaps Gillick had similar thoughts going through his head after he traded away Abreu and Bell and when he was ironing out that deal to send Burrell to Baltimore?

Maybe.

More interesting to ponder is if things would have ended differently the past two seasons if Leyland were the manager instead of Manuel? Well, it’s not as easy as simply replacing one guy for another, despite what Todd Jones says. There’s no telling how all of the personalities would have blended if anyone but Manuel were skippering the Phillies. Besides, if Leyland were in Philadelphia it would be unlikely that Pat Gillick would be the GM, too.

Maybe Wade sealed his own fate by not hiring Leyland when he campaigned so hard for the job. But then again we should have all seen the handwriting on the wall when Wade stood at the podium after Leyland’s cleansing tell-all and said:

“Even if you’re polling the 3.2 million people who came to watch us this year, I don’t think you can get hung up on this people’s commanding lead in the votes 320 to 112 or anything like that. We’re going to hire a manager we hope our fans like, but at the same time we’re going to try to hire a manager that is going to get us to the World Series.”

Hindsight being what it is… well, you can fill in the rest.

But make no mistake about one thing – Philadelphia is barely a blip on Leyland’s rear-view mirror now. Actually, it’s hard to look back at anything when champagne is stinging the eyes.

Looking to the winter

For anyone who has followed the news lately, there doesn't need to be an explaination about what has been happening here in Lancaster County. Though I live a short 25 to 30 minute drive from the so-called Amish Country, my part of Lancaster may as well be on the other side of the earth from there.

But when something happens out there it resonnates throughout our city. More than that, an attack to the Amish way is an assault on all of us.

On to the baseball...

Needless to say the Phillies season ended rather anti-climatically after a month in which it seemed as if the wild-card race was a bottle of soda being shook up in an industrial paint mixer. But before the top could be popped, the Phillies fizzled.

Surprised?

I get the sense that the Phillies will head into this winter more optimistic than they had been during the past failed seasons. Maybe that has something to do with how well the team played after the trade deadline, or that proven GM Pat Gillick is in charge... who knows? Just be sure that the Phillies really think the future is very bright and expect them to market the '07 season accordingly.

Nevertheless, there are a few pressing issues Gillick and the brass have to iron out. The situation with Pat Burrell and the outfield is high on that list, along with shoring up the five spots on the pitching rotation and adding strength to the bullpen.

In regard to the pitching, don't expect both Jamie Moyer or Randy Wolf to return. Wolf is a free agent who would like to return to the Phillies, while Moyer is a 20-year vet who would prefer to pitch for a team that trains in Arizona and plays near his home in Seattle. Interestingly, though, Moyer has an option for '07 that he will likely exercise. Where that leaves him and the Phillies is any one's guess.

Could Moyer be traded for a reliever? Doubtful, but you never know.

Meanwhile, if Jon Lieber and Brett Myers are going to remain at the top of the Phillies' rotation, both pitchers must do something about their fitness... or else. Not only did both pitchers' girth effect their performances -- especially in regard to injuries and athletic nature of the game -- it was also a bit embarrassing. I know Manuel said something to Lieber about his weight in the past, but it has now reached the point where it can't be a dirty, little joke. Lieber and Myers have to get into athletic shape and the Phillies have to make them.

As for the bullpen, I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so about Arthur Rhodes. Go ahead, click here and read the story I wrote when they traded for him. I'm not often correct, but whn I am I like to gloat.

Still, though he pitched well until he was worn down to a little nub, Geoff Geary is not the answer at the back end of the Phillies' bullpen. Maybe the answer is Ryan Madson, who went through something of a lost year this season as he bounced back and forth between the rotation and 'pen. Expect Madson to be back where he belongs for the entire season in 2007.

But the Phillies will still need some horses back there. Gillick definitely knows that championship teams are often built from the back to the front, and, like last year, expect the GM to attempt to strengthen the pitching staff.

Live, from New York...
I must admit that my favorite part about watching the baseball playoffs is watching the former Phillies in action. That's always been the case -- I even have a vague recollection of Jay Johnstone playing first base for the Yankees in the clinching game of the 1978 World Series. It was a day game and we lived in D.C. and Johnstone played for the Phillies earlier that year.

That's about all I remember from that World Series.

However, I remember sitting in a conference room in Citizens Bank Park listening to Ed Wade refuse to talk about Scott Rolen, Curt Schilling and Terry Francona making the run to the World Series in 2004. I think Ed thought we were picking on him.

Anyway, I especially enjoyed Bobby Abreu deliver a clutch, two-run double to open up the scoring for the Yankees in the blowout victory in last night's opener. And there, at third base was Larry Bowa waving those runners in.

Man does Bobby Abreu fit in well with that team.

Former Phillies in the playoffs

Here's a list of the former Phillies in the playoffs. In parenthesis is the number of trips to the playoffs since leaving Philadelphia.

AMERICAN LEAGUE
Athletics
none

Tigers
Todd Jones (1)
Placido Polanco (1)

Twins
Carlos Silva (2)
Nick Punto (2)

Yankees
Cory Lidle (1)
Sal Fasano (1)
Bobby Abreu (1)

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cardinals
Josh Hancock (1)
Gary Bennett (1)
Scott Rolen (3)

Dodgers
Marlon Anderson (2)
Kenny Lofton (1)

Mets
Roberto Hernandez (1)
Billy Wagner (1)
Julio Franco (7)
Endy Chavez (1)
Ricky Ledee (1)
Michael Tucker (1)

Padres
none

Based on these rosters, it seems as if we’re headed for an Oakland-San Diego World Series.

A little help?

The big victory over the Marlins last night was pretty amazing when all that the team went through is taken into consideration. It would seem to me that playing an important baseball game when the team did not get to the hotel in Miami until 8:30 a.m. could have an effect on some players.

Not these Phillies.

Trade away Bobby Abreu, David Bell, Rheal Cormier and Cory Lidle? No problem. Have the general manager go on record saying the team was two years away? Pee-shaw. Start an important game at 11:30 p.m. after a four-hour, 32-minute rain delay, and wait on a bus until close to 4 a.m. figuring which airport has a pilot to fly the team to Miami?

Is that all you have?

Now all the Phillies need is for the Padres and/or Dodgers to lose two games in a row.

Of course, the Phillies have to win but that seems like the easy part. Any team that can go through what the Phils have during the past week with the homer stolen from Chase Utley on Tuesday, the 14-inning game on Wednesday, and the debacle with the rain on Thursday.

“All of a sudden, things went sour," Manuel said. “We've had to overcome some things, too. But as I look back, I see hustle. I see concentration. The outcome doesn't indicate the level of effort. At the same time, we've made a lot of mistakes. We haven't gotten it done. And it's hard to put your finger on why.”

Part of the reason why was that MLB bent down and puckered up to smooch FOX on the rump. When the Phillies were trying to get Thursday night’s game rained out so they could get to Florida before the sun came up, the reason they got from the wizards at MLB was that the Giants and Cardinals might have to play on Monday.

Huh?

According to folks following the team in Miami, the Phillies were told by MLB that the league was concerned about the possibility that the Giants and Cardinals would have to play a makeup game on Monday and that FOX was worried that it would only have American League games to broadcast when the Division series start on Tuesday.

Seriously. No joke.

But, of course, the Phillies had to win more than one game in Washington for their whine to have any cheese. Winning cures a lot of ills and the Phillies didn’t do that at RFK.

Even though the Phillies failed to take advantage of wonderful opportunities on Tuesday – when they went 11 straight plate appearances with runners in scoring position without plating a run – and Thursday when they squeaked out just five singles, they somehow find themselves breathing.

Better yet, with the core of the team set to return next season it’s hard not think that the Phillies will stash this run away in the memory banks. Yeah, they came close last year, too, but this year feels different. It might feel even more different next season if the Phillies’ outfield “improves its speed” in a way general manager Pat Gillick wants.

Of course, when I heard Gillick mention how he wanted the team to improve its speed in the outfield, I took that to mean, “We want to get rid of Burrell.”

Funny, Jim Leyland wanted to do the same thing.

Nevertheless, Burrell hit the ball hard on Thursday and Friday nights and will finish the season with some decent-looking numbers. For Burrell, 29 homers and 95 RBIs is nothing to sneeze at. Yet to mull over Burrell’s season now, after all that has been written, is nothing more than piling on.

So, since we have the time and the space, let’s think about the Phillies’ lineup for 2007:

c – ?
1b – Howard
2b – Utley
3b – ?
ss – Rollins
lf – Dellucci?/Conine?
cf – Rowand
rf – Victorino

Bench
Bourn
Coste
Roberson
Nunez

Starters
Lieber
Myers
Hamels
Moyer
Wolf?

Bullpen
Gordon
Geary
Madson
Smith
White
?
?

Down go the Phillies

The Phillies have the odds stacked against them and, no, that has nothing to do with the fact that they are two games behind the Dodgers in the wild-card race with three games left in the season. Obviously, that doesn't help, but it appears as if the hill is too steep to climb.

For starters, the team was still waiting in buses to go to the airport when I walked out of RFK at a shade past 3 a.m. this morning. Though they went through security clearance at the ballpark and the buses will drive right on to the tarmac so that the players can hop get on their chartered flight to Florida, a best-case scenario has the team getting into the air at 4 a.m. at the very earliest.

And that depends upon if they went to National, BWI or Dulles.

There's more, too. It was 2:30 a.m. when I walked into the tight and cramped visitor's clubhouse at RFK where the first person I saw was Jamie Moyer, tonight's starting pitcher, sitting in his locker waiting to head to the airport. Moyer had the option of flying ahead so that he could be properly rested for tonight's important game, but the veteran thought it would be better to wait the night out with his teammates.

Make no mistake about it -- Moyer was going to wait. According to sources and Charlie Manuel, the Phillies were going to play the game against the Nationals no matter what. It would not have mattered if the rain finally stopped at 2:07 a.m. (which is when the game ultimately ended); the game was going to be played before the Phillies left for Miami. That, they say, was the edict from MLB in New York. Apparently, they did not leave themselves any wiggle room in next week's playoff schedule, which seems to be their M.O.

No wiggle room on performance-enhancing drugs and no wiggle room on the TV schedule. Way to go, MLB!

Nevertheless, the Phillies clubhouse was as quiet as a crowded room could be. Forget that it was 2:30 a.m. and there was another ballgame looming after they arrived in Florida as the sun was rising. The Phillies, it seems, see the graffiti on the wall.

"I'd say [the team's mood] is down, yeah," Manuel said at 2:24 a.m., standing against some dungeon-like corridor wall in the bowels of RFK. "But when you don't hit and don't play real well, I don't know what you can do about it. That's the way baseball is sometimes. But it's hard to live with it."

Sometimes it's hard to live without, too. That seems like the way it will be for another October in Philadelphia.

That's all she wrote?

With three games remaining, the folks at Baseball Prospectus give the Phillies a 5.59430 percent chance to win the wild card. Perhaps that figure would be even lower when the comments from the Marlins Scott Olsen and Taylor Tankersley are factored in.

Get them before they're gone

Not to jinx anything, but the Phillies announced that playoff tickets will go on sale on Thursday morning at 9 a.m. If the Phillies win the wild card, the team will play on Saturday, Oct. 7 at the Bank and Sunday, Oct. 8 if it's necessary.

According to the Phillies, a maximum of four tickets per game is allowed for each of the division series games at a cost of $20 to $45 per ticket, which will be sold online at Phillies.com, by calling the team's phone center at 215-463-1000, or in person at the Citizens Bank Park first-base gate ticket windows.

The Phillies say information regarding a public sale for NLCS and World Series tickets would be announced at a later date if the Phillies are involved.

Nonetheless, the Phillies will not have home-field advantage for any of the playoff serieses should they advance.

If the Phillies get there, the schedule is as follows:

NL Division Series (game times to be determined)
Wednesday, October 4, road game.
Thursday, October 5, road game.
Saturday, October 7, Citizens Bank Park.
Sunday, October 8, Citizens Bank Park (if necessary).
Monday, October 9, road game (if necessary).

National League Championship Series (All games on FOX TV)
Wednesday, October 11, road game (game time TBD)
Thursday, October 12, road game, 8:00 p.m.
Saturday, October 14, Citizens Bank Park, 4:00 p.m.
Sunday, October 15, Citizens Bank Park, 7:30 p.m.
Monday, October 16, Citizens Bank Park (if necessary), 8:00 p.m.
Wednesday, October 18, road game (if necessary), 4:00 p.m. or 8:00 p.m.
Thursday, October 19, road game (if necessary), 8:00 p.m.

World Series (All games on FOX TV)
Saturday, October 21, 7:30 p.m., American League city.
Sunday, October 22, 7:30 p.m., American League city.
Tuesday, October 24, 8:00 p.m., Citizens Bank Park.
Wednesday, October 25, 8:00 p.m., Citizens Bank Park.
Thursday, October 26, 8:00 p.m., Citizens Bank Park (if necessary).
Saturday, October 28, 7:30 p.m., American League city (if necessary).
Sunday, October 29, 7:30 p.m., American League city (if necessary).

Playoff lineup

The Phillies still haven't determined their playoff roster yet, nor have they ironed out a pitching rotation, but at least they know when the games will be played. This afternoon, the team sent out an email with the postseason schedule. Here it is:

NL Division Series (game times to be determined)
Wednesday, October 4, road game.
Thursday, October 5, road game.
Saturday, October 7, Citizens Bank Park.
Sunday, October 8, Citizens Bank Park (if necessary).
Monday, October 9, road game (if necessary).

National League Championship Series (All games on FOX TV)
Wednesday, October 11, road game (game time TBD)
Thursday, October 12, road game, 8:00 p.m.
Saturday, October 14, Citizens Bank Park, 4:00 p.m.
Sunday, October 15, Citizens Bank Park, 7:30 p.m.
Monday, October 16, Citizens Bank Park (if necessary), 8:00 p.m.
Wednesday, October 18, road game (if necessary), 4:00 p.m. or 8:00 p.m.
Thursday, October 19, road game (if necessary), 8:00 p.m.

World Series (All games on FOX TV)
Saturday, October 21, 7:30 p.m., American League city.
Sunday, October 22, 7:30 p.m., American League city.
Tuesday, October 24, 8:00 p.m., Citizens Bank Park.
Wednesday, October 25, 8:00 p.m., Citizens Bank Park.
Thursday, October 26, 8:00 p.m., Citizens Bank Park (if necessary).
Saturday, October 28, 7:30 p.m., American League city (if necessary).
Sunday, October 29, 7:30 p.m., American League city (if necessary).

Observations with 10 games to go

Based on just looking around and listening, here are a few observations about the surging Phillies:

After injuries and other maladies curbed his first handful of pro seasons, it finally looks as if Cole Hamels is going to make to the end of one unscathed. Who would have guessed that Hamels first full season would come in the big leagues?

Be that as it may, Hamels is 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA over his last 10 starts, so it seems as if he’s getting stronger. According to his teammates, he’s just the same old Cole.

"That’s his personality," catcher Chris Coste said. "He’s strong minded. He knows what he can do. Whether it’s the middle or July or the seventh game of the World Series, he’s the same guy. That’s just the way he is. Whether it’s a playoff game or a game like this one, he’s the guy you want on the mound."

Said fellow lefty Randy Wolf: "He has one of the three best changeups in baseball."

Johan Santana is at the top of that list, according to Wolf.

Trading for Jamie Moyer and Jeff Conine was a masterstroke by general manager Pat Gillick and his assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. Forget what those guys are doing on the field, it’s in the clubhouse where the influence is really important.

Moyer and Conine, both 40 and over, are two classic lead-by-example guys, who have shown the youngsters on the Phillies how to prepare and get into the right frame of mind to play. Both guys are intense, they do their homework, and they bring an organic intensity to every task. Moyer and Conine are not in Philadelphia to goof around – they’re here to win.

In 2003 the Marlins picked up Conine for the stretch run and he helped his team hammer the Phillies to win the wild-card and contributed to the World Series run. More important than his home runs to beat the Phillies was the attitude he brought to the Marlins. I remember Juan Pierre watching how the veteran prepared every day and said he was afraid to talk to Conine because, “He always looks like he’s mad.”

It turns out Conine wasn’t mad. He’s just hungry.

Yeah, there are nine games left and the Phillies are as close to a playoff berth as they have been since 1993. Every victory puts them just a tiny bit closer. However, I still don’t feel it yet. Maybe it’s from watching too many Phillies games over the years, but I’m going to wait until the very end and reserve judgment.

Be that as it may, I think the Padres will win the NL West. Call it a hunch.

Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, here’s something interesting from Will Carroll’s injury column that could have some bearing on this weekend’s series:

Miguel Cabrera has missed a couple games with a strained shoulder, the result of an awkward lunge at an outside pitch. Cabrera’s injury isn’t considered serious, but could keep him out for the rest of the season. The team is focused on getting past the controversy surrounding their manager and one way to do that would be finishing at or above .500. Cabrera’s return might well be tied to the chances of hitting that magic number. The MVP candidate should have no long-term concerns from the injury.

Carroll’s column is stellar stuff, though Howie Bryant’s steroids-in-baseball book was far superior to Carroll’s.

I play hunches, but at BP they use science. Here are the latest postseason odds as generated by the folks at BP simulating the final 10 games of the season a million times:

Phillies are on pace to win 84.1 games, which gives them a 46.53874 percent chance to win the wild card. However, the Padres (85.4 victories) and the Dodgers (84.7), still rate above the Phillies.

Can you say playoff game in Philadelphia on Oct. 2?