Gillick standing pat no more

Just when it looked as if the Phillies were settling in for a quiet time spent in a posh resort in Disney World, general manager Pat Gillick pulled off a deal.

Make that a big deal.

In an announcement late Wednesday night, Gillick finally landed that top-of-the-rotation starter he coveted since he took over the gig in late 2005. In exchange for top pitching prospect Gio Gonzalez and former first-round pick Gavin Floyd, the Phillies received two-time All-Star Freddy Garcia.

Just 30 years old, Garcia is 116-71 in eight seasons with the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox. Aside from an injury-plagued 2000 season, Garcia has pitched no fewer than 201 1/3 innings in every one of his seven full seasons in the Majors, including 444 1/3 for a 31-17 record during his past two years in Chicago.

"I think the Phillies just acquired a 17- to 20-game winner," White Sox GM Kenny Williams said. "We're going to miss Freddy Garcia."

Better yet, Garcia is 6-2 in nine postseason starts, including a four-hit gem in the clinching game of the 2005 World Series. Featuring a big fastball, the 6-foot-4, 235-pound native of Caracas, Venezuela has averaged 6.58 strikeouts per nine innings with just a tad more than two walks per nine innings.

"Getting a veteran guy who has been in the heat of a pennant race and done the things Freddy has done, we just felt it was the right move to make," Phillies assistant general manager Mike Arbuckle said.

In 2006, Garcia went 17-9 and earned $9 million in salary. In 2007 he is slated to earn $10 million.

"We're very pleased to acquire Freddy," Arbuckle said. "He'll fit very nicely into our rotation. He gives us innings and is a proven winner."

The trade could be just one in a series of moves for the Phillies. The chatter from the Winter Meetings at Disney’s Swan and Dolphin Resort during the past two days was that the Phillies were hoping to land Garcia so that they could deal away oft-injured starting pitcher Jon Lieber for bullpen help. Initially, reports had the Phillies sending Floyd and outfielder/fan-favorite Aaron Rowand to the White Sox for Garcia, with Lieber heading to Milwaukee for reliever Derrick Turnbow.

Instead, the Phillies get to keep Rowand, who they acquired, along with Gonzalez, from the White Sox in the deal for Jim Thome.

Now, with six starters with bona fide big-league experience on the roster, it remains to be seen if Lieber will be on the move.

"It gives us more options," Arbuckle said. "It gives us the opportunity to do more things."

With Garcia in the fold, using Lieber for bullpen help seems like it’s elementary. Sure, Lieber won 20 games once upon a time for the Cubs, and he won 17 for the Phillies in 2005. When the big right-hander is healthy, he’s a steady and consistent a pitcher capable of turning in seven innings every time out. But Lieber has been plagued by injuries during his 12 seasons. He has pitched 200 innings just four times, missed a full season after Tommy John surgery, and looks as if he’s a step away from a pulled hamstring or groin.

And frankly, the Phillies are a little concerned about Lieber's growing waistline.

According to published reports, Phils manager Charlie Manuel said Lieber’s fitness – or lack thereof – was (and is) an issue.

“He did let himself go, and he knows it," Manuel told reporters on Tuesday morning. “I think probably he's tired of hearing it.”

Manuel had talked to Lieber about his fitness during the 2005 season, too, though the pitcher didn’t seem to be paying attention then.

“From here, it's up to him,” Manuel told reporters.

Then again, Lieber could be another team’s problem in 2007.

That’s the case with Floyd, the frustrating 23-year-old righty who was the fourth overall pick in the 2001 draft. Though he showed flashes of brilliance during parts of three seasons with the Phillies, Floyd’s record indicates otherwise. In 2006 he was 4-3 with a 7.29 ERA in 11 starts for the Phillies and 7-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 17 starts at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre after being demoted in June.

Though he cracked the opening day roster in 2005 and 2006, Floyd went from one of the team’s top pitching prospects to a pitcher that no longer figured into the team’s plans. That’s a severe 180-degree turn from where the Phillies were with Floyd after they gave him a $4.2 million signing bonus in 2001 to lure him away from enrolling at the University of South Carolina.

Once in the minor league system, Floyd’s ascent was quick with very few challenges. His domination in the bushes – one that included a no-hitter in Single-A ball – got to the point where team insiders and observers said that it appeared as if the tall right-hander was bored.

The difficult part, some offered, was hoping that Floyd became engaged in a game, or that his interest was piqued. Still, no one ever doubted Floyd’s talent, which is why the Phillies were loath to simply give him away.

“I think Gavin's going to be a little bit of a late bloomer,” Arbuckle said.

That very well could be the case, but in his stead the Phillies got someone who is already ripe. With Garcia joining Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer and Lieber as a lure for even more pitching, the Phillies’ troublesome rotation has come a long way since last April.

Phillies Round Out Rotation with Eaton

Pat Gillick has not been very shy about expressing his disdain for the current crop of free agents on the market. Actually, Gillick was a bit underwhelmed by his choices last year, too, when he said his priority was to find a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Phillies.

“Sometimes we can get everything we want, but sometimes nothing materializes,” the Phils’ GM said.

Nonetheless, another year has passed and Gillick and the Phillies still have not made any changes at the top of the rotation. Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer hold down the same spots as they did at the end of the 2006 season. The only difference is that Adam Eaton, the club’s first-round draft pick in 1996, will finally start a season in the Phillies’ rotation.

Of course there was a decade of climbing through the minors, a trade to San Diego and then another to Texas before finally getting his chance to pitch for the Phillies, yet Eaton is finally here after the official announcement of his new deal with the team that drafted him.

Eaton, still just 29 years old, is guaranteed $24.5 million over the next three seasons, the team announced on Thursday afternoon. The oft-injured right-hander joins the Phillies after starting just 13 games for the Rangers in 2006 after undergoing surgery on the middle finger of his pitching hand last April. In that Baker’s dozen of starts, Eaton went 7-4 with a 5.12 ERA, but has gone 18-9 over the past two years and 37 starts.

Eaton also had elbow surgery in July of 2001 that kept him off the field until September of 2002. Meanwhile, Eaton missed a few starts in 2005 with a strained middle finger on is right hand before having surgery on it in April of 2006. In all, Eaton has been on the disabled list six times during his career.

Regardless, the Phillies just committed three seasons and $24.5 million to a pitcher who has never had an ERA lower than 4.08 or thrown 200 innings in any of his seven Major League seasons. In fact, Eaton has made more than 30 starts just twice.

“We’re very happy to have Adam in the fold,” Gillick said in a statement. “He stabilizes our rotation and will complement the rest of our staff nicely.”

So unless there is an unforeseen trade or signing, the Phillies rotation for 2007 is set. That, however, doesn’t mean Gillick doesn’t have some work to do before the team heads to Clearwater in mid February. Or even the winter meetings in Orlando, Fla. next week.

“We’ll have to wait and see. We have a few lines out there trying to acquire what we need,” Gillick offered during a conference call on Thursday evening. We want to go out fishing and we have a few proposals out there. We’re looking for some bullpen help and a hitter.”

The Phillies’ needs certainly do not need to be decoded. With five starters with Major League experience, four outfielders and five infielders, the Phillies are set in those aspects. The bullpen, on the other hand, is incomplete and Gillick says he wouldn’t mind bolstering the team’s catching (Mike Piazza?) in addition to acquiring that much-talked about hitter (Mike Piazza?).

Let's make a deal?
But outside of landing Eaton and part-time third baseman Wes Helms, Gillick has whiffed as if he were Pat Burrell with two on and two outs. The team was interested in 40-40 man Alfonso Soriano until the Cubs came in and offered him an eight-year deal that made him the second-richest Chicagoan behind Oprah.

With Soriano gone, the team was rumored to be one of a handful of teams in the mix for Carlos Lee until he decided to go to Houston for six years and $100 million. After that news dropped, Gillick claimed the Phils weren’t so involved in bidding for Lee despite the fact that the slugger was as steady performer during his career. Sure, there are/were fair concerns over Lee’s fitness and attitude, but if Gillick and the gang are looking for protection for MVP Ryan Howard as they say they are, the new Astro would have fit in nicely in Philadelphia.

But for six years and $100 million?

Secretly, or maybe not so secretly, Gillick and the Phillies brass must have breathed a sigh of relief that Lee signed such an obnoxious deal with the Astros. While publicly downplaying the market, Gillick has a few built-in excuses and the luxury of being sane (and right) for not shelling out the mega years and bucks for Soriano and Lee. After all, Burrell already has one of those crazy deals.

And as far as trading that crazy deal to another team… well, good luck.

“We don’t have a lot to trade,” Gillick said. “We have the four outfielders (Burrell, Aaron Rowand, Shane Victorino and Jeff Conine), and the five infielders (Howard, Helms, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Abraham Nunez). We need to add. We don’t have the surplus to trade.”

Besides, published reports indicate that Burrell will only waive his no-trade clause to go to the Yankees, Red Sox or a west-coast club.

So there’s another strike. Mix in the rescinded multi-year offer to reliever Joe Borowski over reported arm trouble revealed in a team physical and Gillick is fouling off some tough ones.

“I’m not really sure with what’s going on out there is everyone is looking for the same commodity,” Gillick said. “Everyone is looking for a starter. Unless someone can trade for a reliever for a starter or a starter for a reliever I can’t see a lot of action going on. If you have some pitching you don’t want to give it up.”

That goes for the reserves in the minor leagues, too. Gillick said the team would be reluctant to deal away a prospect like Gio Gonzalez for a short-term fix.

At the same time, Gillick says one of those proposals the team has dangled out there has not been offered to former Reds closer David Weathers.

Needless to say, there’s work to do.

“We’re optimistic, but I can’t make any assurances or commitments that [anything is] going to happen,” Gillick said.

But at least for now, Gillick and the Phillies can be satisfied that some of holiday shopping is taken care of with Eaton’s arrival. Plus, with the re-acquisition of the team’s 1999 Paul Owens Award winner, the Phillies staff might not have changed at the top but it’s better than it was when 2006 began.

“I don’t look at the other teams in the division or the league, but from where we were from the beginning of the ’06 season we have five starters who have [Major League] experience. We have starters with experience,” Gillick said. “We didn’t have that last year.

“From the quality standpoint we have a better rotation that we had at the beginning of last year. What we have to do is work on the bullpen.”

Pitchers and catcher report in 11 weeks.

Hot stove warming up

Note: This post was written before reports indicated that the Phillies signed Wes Helms to a two-year deal.

First off, I took a few days off to run another marathon, rest and eat some food that normal people like – pizza and ice cream instead of tofu, salmon and rice – and now I’m more worn out than I was before.

Cie la vie.

Anyway, all of the running, racing and training information and musings is on the other slightly neglected site.

So as the Phillies and general manager Pat Gillick were sending out offers to the dozens of free agents while trying to pick up the dreaded 7-10 split at the General Manager Meetings in Florida, I was probably wondering why I couldn’t feel my calves. I may have been ignoring a football game on TV while getting a two-beer buzz and wondering if it would take more effort to carve my golf handicap down to 15 or run another 2:30 marathon.

Clearly a 2:30 is more reasonable.

Nonetheless, my goal remains to squeeze through that ever-tightening window to run a respectable marathon just as the Phillies hope to make the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade. In that regard, I’ll go out on a limb here and say the Phillies will play baseball in October of 2007.

Wait… shouldn’t we wait for all of the hot-stove stuff to heat up? Don’t the Phillies have a few holes they need to fill?

No and yes.

I’ll explain why I believe the Phillies will make the playoffs in detail between now and next October – kind of like a serialization – so just keep checking back and delving through these ramblings. As for the needy stuff, let’s rate them in order of necessity:

Bolster bullpen

Get another starter (or two)

Address Pat Burrell situation

third base

catcher

Alfonso Soriano

Soriano, of course, is the biggest name on the market so it’s only natural that most of the media attention is focused on him. Yet whether or not the Phillies get Soriano won’t make or break the off-season. Why? Well, for starters the Phillies already score more runs than any other team. What, is it that important that the Phils really, really out-score every other team?

Secondly, Soriano’s so-called task would be to “protect” Ryan Howard. As I’ve written here so many times in the past, Howard hit 58 home runs and struck out 181 times – it sounds like he’s doing a pretty good job protecting himself.

Perhaps if he just struck out 150 times instead of 181, maybe he would have hit a few more homers and raised his average a few points. Would that have made a difference in the end? Who knows… there are too many other variables that transcend mere statistics.

This ain’t Strat-O-Matic, folks. Besides, I was always an APBA guy.

Besides, the Phillies traded away Bobby Abreu apparently in order to create some financial flexibility, yet they are willing to give more money and years to Soriano? Why does that make sense?

Well, Soriano is right-handed, hits for more power and hasn’t raised the hackles of certain segments of the fandom because they haven’t ever seen him play and only know him as a 40-40 guy who just so happens to be the biggest name on the market.

What better reason is there to sign a guy than that?

Plus, if the Phillies are unable to sign Soriano they still have Pat Burrell. Yes, Burrell has fallen out of favor in Philadelphia and had a disappointing season despite some statistics that don’t look all that bad. Like Howard and all of those strikeouts, just think if Burrell can hit .225 with runners in scoring position and two outs instead of .167.

Miscellany

Randy Wolf’s agent Arn Tellem said he wants to have his client signed before the winter meetings begin in Orlando on Dec. 4. According to published reports, the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays – as well as the Phillies – are interested in Wolf.

According to The Inquirer, Scott Graham likely will not return to the Phillies’ broadcast booth in 2007. During the baseball season I don’t get the chance to hear the home team’s announcers that much so I’m not much of an expert on their work. Nonetheless, if Graham does not get a new contract it’s a bit of a surprise.

I was always under the impression that baseball broadcasting jobs were like Supreme Court appointments… apparently not.

Again, I’m no expert and don’t have any insider information that I’m willing to share, but I don’t think Graham will be on the sidelines in 2007.

Remember the end of September when I waxed on and on about Ken Mandel’s “performance” in the President’s Race between innings at RFK? No? Here’s a reminder…

Anyway, Ken’s dash down the first-base side of the field was nominated for “The Blooper of the Year” on MLB.com. In fact, if Ken wins the online balloting, the Nationals want to have the Phillies.com reporter back to accept an award on the field dressed as Thomas Jefferson.

No word if the Oriole Bird will be on hand, too.

We will keep everyone up to date on all developments of this story.

Trading Burrell is linchpin to big winter

Pat Gillick and the Phillies are like an airplane loaded with passengers but still sitting at the gate. Everything has been checked and double-checked, everyone’s seatbelt is fastened and luggage is safely stowed in the overhead compartment.

All Gillick needs to is the OK from the control tower and he’s set for take off.

Kind of.

When the free-agency period begins on Nov. 12, Gillick and the Phillies are expected to woo Washington Nationals’ left fielder Alfonso Soriano, likely the biggest name on the winter market. On the strength of his 40-40 season in 2006 (46 homers and 41 stolen bases), the Phillies are said to be prepared to offer Soriano $80 million over five seasons, and then plunk him down in the middle of the batting order between lefties Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The thought is that Soriano can both provide protection for the sluggers as well as fortify a lineup that has scored more runs than any National League team over the past two seasons.

“We could use some depth in the middle of the order,” Gillick said.

Even without Soriano the Phillies are formidable offensively. Howard, one of the top two MVP candidates on the strength of his 58-homer season in 2006, is the anchor of the murderer’s row that featured four players that swatted at least 25 homers and drove in 83 runs. Besides that, Gillick and manager Charlie Manuel are both very high on Shane Victorino, a young outfielder who appeared in 153 games in many roles last season.

Offense? Yeah, the Phillies have that.

So why do they feel the need to make it better with Soriano instead of pursuing a starter to fill out the rotation or a set-up man for closer Tom Gordon? After all, Manuel told said that he would prefer to have a backend reliever who has experience as a closer to fill out the bullpen. That’s where free agents Joe Borowski and David Weathers enter the picture. According to published reports and sources, the Phillies have eyed the relievers as possible set-up men for 2007.

On top of that, Gillick said that he wants to re-sign free agent starter Randy Wolf to round out the rotation that features lefties Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, as well as Jon Lieber and Brett Myers. Gillick says he’s hopeful that the Phillies can work out a deal with Wolf.

“Hopeful, but not optimistic,” the GM said.

“This is the first opportunity he’s ever had for free agency so I think he wants to kick the tires and see if the grass is greener.”

The grass may be greener, but for how long? The mood around the media luncheon in Citizen Bank Park’s Hall of Fame Club overlooking the pastoral and eerily quiet ball diamond was that the Phillies weren’t simply going to make bids for players, cross their fingers and hope they get their man. Nope, Gillick and the gang emitted an aura that they were in control of the situation and were confident that they will add the bat into the middle of the lineup, get that fifth starter, and find a suitable set-up man or two to anchor the bullpen.

Really? The Phillies? Didn’t they once describe themselves as a small-market team not so long ago?

“I think our ownership and CEO are pretty practical. Anything we bring to them that makes sense, not only for the short term, but the long term, I don't think they'll be reluctant to make the move,” Gillick said. “But it has to make sense. If you have to make a commitment you have to figure that player is going to figure for you for whatever time you're obligated. If you have to give somebody four years and you only get three years, that's one thing. But if you give somebody four years and you only get one, that's a different story.”

So the hot-stove is heating up for the Phillies. Signing Soriano should be a piece of cake, right? Five years without a no-trade clause should do it?

“You can't ever be sure,” Gillick said. “But when you make these decisions, are you going to be in love with this guy a year from now as much as you're in love with him right now? That's a decision you're going to have to make. I don't know a lot of people that I want to be in love with for five years.”

Like Pat Burrell for instance. Gillick didn’t come right out and say that he was trying to find a suitable deal for the maligned left fielder and the Phillies this winter, but he didn’t deny it either. The same goes for Manuel who when asked about Burrell had a resigned tenor of someone who knew something was coming, but didn’t want to come right out and say it.

“What hurt Pat the most was that when we got to the seventh or eighth inning we had to get him out of the game,” Manuel said without the best poker face. “If he didn’t have the foot issues he might have had a season like he did two years ago.

“I haven't ruled out the fact that he's still on our club. I've always stood with Pat. He lost some at-bats [because of his foot].”

But Burrell holds all of the cards – at least all of the good ones. He also might hold the Phillies winter progress – or lack therof – in his hands. Sure, the Phillies seem to forging ahead as if they can sign all of the players they want and keep Burrell if he doesn’t agree to be moved, but the reality is the left fielder needs to go if the team is going to fulfill their off-season objectives.

Where or when that occurs is anyone’s guess.

More pitching
If the Phillies are not able to re-sign Wolf, Gillick says the fifth starter will likely come from outside the organization.

“We've got to get another starter, and I don't see that starter coming out of our organization. It'll have to come from outside,” Gillick said. “We've got some things to attend to from the starting standpoint and from the bullpen standpoint.”

Nonetheless, Gillick says he is much happier with the state of the rotation now than he was last year.

“This year we’ll open with Hamels and Moyer instead of (Gavin) Floyd and (Ryan Madson),” he said.

Manuel agrees with the GM noting that the rotation at the end of the season was the “best we’ve had in two years.”

Other luncheon notes
If the season were to end today, Ken Mandel's fantasy football team would be in the playoffs. This is despite the fact that Phillies.com writer's club has the least amount of points in the scribes football league.

On the outside and looking in is yours truly, who is running away with the points title but is just 4-4-1.

"We have to do better and I'll take full responsibility," I said in a release issued by the team.

A few writers were steamed that the availability with Charlie Manuel was held up by a TV reporter who wanted to talk to the manager about professional wrestling. Never mind the fact that the channel usually devotes a little less than 180 seconds to sports coverage every night.

Or that no one watches that channel.

Nevertheless, I'd like to know the skipper's thoughts on the Junkyard Dog or Jimmy "Super Fly" Snuka. If the segment gets on YouTube, please send me the link.

Mmmmm... lunch

The local scribes and TV media have a luncheon with the Phillies’ new coaches, Charlie Manuel and Pat Gillick. Needless to say, events like this are the one time when media-types don’t show up for the free food.

Well, maybe they do…

Anyway, I’m sure the general manager will be a popular fellow this afternoon – much more popular than new coaches Jimy Williams, Art Howe and Davey Lopes. Then again, Mr. Howe’s stay with the Phillies could be very short. In fact, he won’t even be at the luncheon this afternoon.

Why? Well, Howe’s old pal and coach from his days as the manager of the Oakland A’s, Ron Washington, got the managerial job in Texas. As a result, Howe is off to interview for the bench coach gig on his friend’s staff.

Meanwhile, according to the adroit Todd Zolecki of the Inquirer, the Phillies decided not to make a bid for the negotiating rights for Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura. Instead, it appears as if the club will try to ink third basemen Mark DeRosa or Wes Helms to split time with Abraham Nunez.

The plan is to check in here with all of the tasty nuggets from the media luncheon. If someone spills mustard on their shirt or walks off with someone else’s computer bag , we’ll make sure to report it here.

Game 5: More errors

Not too long after Tim McCarver made a salient point about Chris Duncan playing right field in the sixth inning of a one-run game, the young outfielder goes ahead and plays a fairly routine warning-track fly ball into a double for Sean Casey.

McCarver said: "At this point you go to four innings of defense."

Actually, nine innings of defense helps, but the point is the Cardinals should worry less about Duncan's offense and more about defense.

But shouldn't the genius Tony La Russa know this?

Defense is the most underrated aspect of the baseball. In fact, Bill James wrote something that got my attention which stated that half of good pitching is really good defense. After presenting this to long-time Major League general manager Pat Gillick, he responded with (essentially) a, "well, yeah... "

Kind of like, "duh."

Proof? Check out the Tigers and the eight unearned runs this series.

Gillick is a self-described pitching and defense guy. I guess I am, too. After all, a baseball team wins more games with good pitching than good hitting.

Nevertheless, Duncan's "error" was a no-harm, no-foul type. Weaver was able to dance out of the sixth with his 3-2 lead to put the Cardinals within nine outs of the title.

On another note, how come I haven't heard anything about former Cardinal Tim McCarver and Cardinals' announcer Joe Buck calling these World Series games?

Et tu, Wolfie?

It wouldn’t be outlandish to believe that Randy Wolf’s future in Philadelphia disappeared as soon as the ink dried on soon-to-be 44-year-old lefty Jamie Moyer’s two-year, $10.5 million (plus incentives) contract signed on Monday afternoon. After all, with Moyer signed on until he’s Julio Franco’s age and 23-year old Cole Hamels a cog in the rotation for the next 15 years, why would the Phillies need another lefty like Wolf in the rotation?

Besides, the Phillies play their home games in a ballpark notorious for being especially friendly to right-handed hitters (lefties, too), so going after the NL East title with 60 percent of the rotation made up of southpaws might not be the best plan of attack.

Or would it?

Sometimes, though, things aren’t as easy as they appear. Even with lefties Moyer and Hamels set for a rotation with righties Brett Myers and Jon Lieber, it seems as if general manager Pat Gillick isn’t ready to let Wolf walk away just yet.

“We'd like to bring Wolfie back,” said Gillick, noting that the Phillies have been in contact with Wolf’s representatives. “We think his arm is fine and we think he's going to get better. Jamie and I had a conversation in Seattle about three left-handers in the rotation, and we liked the thought of that. We're hopeful that Randy will come back. We'd like to have the same five guys that we had last year. I look at it as a better rotation than we started '06 with. We think bringing Randy back will be a nice way to round out the rotation and start 2007. Hopefully, something will work out.”

Wolf, of course, is eligible to test free agency this winter after completing a four-year, $22 million deal. He also made a return from Tommy John surgery to reconstruct his left elbow in late July and made 12 starts in 2006. Though he was 4-0, Wolf, 30, tossed just 56 2/3 innings for a 5.56 ERA, while allowing hitters to hit .285 against him. Despite that, Gillick believes Wolf was making strides in his return from the injury and was beginning to re-establish his velocity as evidenced in his nearly seven strikeouts per nine innings.

Besides, pitchers returning from Wolf’s injury usually regain their pre-surgery form – and then some – in the second year following surgery. By that rationale, Wolf, and maybe even the Phillies, should expect big things in 2007.

Wolf has stated that he would like to return to Philadelphia for a bunch of reasons. One being that the Phillies drafted him, signed him and gave him the big contract before the 2003 season. More importantly, Wolf wants to be “playing baseball in October,” which might not be such a stretch after back-to-back near misses in 2005 and 2005.

Meanwhile, Moyer will solidify the back end of a rotation that was a problem for the Phillies in 2006. Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Scott Mathieson, Eude Brito, Aaron Fultz and Adam Bernero were thrust into starting roles to varying degrees of mediocrity last season.

Needless to say, if the Phillies are able to add Wolf to the mix with the inning-eater Moyer, the team will have very few surprises in ’07.

What some find surprising is that Moyer, who will turn 44 on Nov. 18, drew a two-year deal from the Phillies. Yes, the Phillies held a $4.75 million option for Moyer the upcoming season, but the St. Joseph’s University alum and Sellersville, Pa. native now calls Seattle home. Gillick believed that Moyer would have been able to find a one-year deal closer to home and had to sweeten the pot a bit in order to keep the 20-year veteran in Philadelphia.

“I certainly felt that if Jamie got out on the marketplace, there was certainly a club out there that was going to give him one year, and there was a possibility that they would give him two years,” Gillick said. “He was important to us not only on the field, but the intangibles in the clubhouse. We wanted him back. I felt that we'd have to step up with more than one year. We think we worked out a situation that is a win-win for both sides. We're really elated that Jamie re-signed with the Phillies for two years.”

Moyer was something of a de facto pitching coach for the Phillies when he joined the club after the trade with the Mariners, tutoring Wolf and Hamels as well as other teammates on the finer points of the game he picked up over the past two decades.

But more than that, the Phillies prospects for getting to the playoffs for the first time since 1993 enticed Moyer. So did the Phillies’ special considerations to Moyer’s family situation where the pitcher can leave the team to go to Seattle to be with his wife and six children when the team’s schedule permitted.

But unlike the deal Roger Clemens had with the Astros in which he only really had to show up for games he was slated to pitch, Moyer won’t do it that way.

“The last six weeks of the season were tough on us as a family,” Moyer said. “I can't thank the Phillies enough for being understanding, and I'm sure my teammates will understand. I'm not here to take advantage of that situation. I won't be missing road trips. I won't be picking and choosing what trips I go on. Personally, I can't do that.”

Most importantly, Moyer believes he isn’t just durable, but he can still pitch, too. At least that’s the way it seemed when he joined the Phillies for the stretch run in August. In eight starts after the trade Moyer worked into the seventh inning in seven of his eight outings on his way to piling up his sixth straight 200-plus innings season and eighth in his last nine years. His 211 1/3 innings in 2006 were the fifth-most by a pitcher at least 43 years old in baseball history.

“I'm trying to be honest with myself,” Moyer said. “At some point in time, it's going to be the end, but right now I haven't seen any signs. I still enjoy playing, and I still have the passion to play. I still feel like I can contribute, and as long as I have opportunities to do that, why not? Playing allows me to feel like a kid.”

Why not, indeed.

Now that's a staff

Let’s go out on a limb here and say Charlie Manuel is on notice. His task for 2007 is to get the Phillies into the playoffs or he can forget about that contract extension for his pact that ends at the end of next year.

At least that’s the way it seemed when the Phillies announced that Davey Lopes, Art Howe and Jimy Williams will be the three new coaches on Manuel’s staff. You see, Lopes, Howe and Williams all have managed in the big leagues, and though only one manager in Phillies history has won more games after his first two seasons as skipper than Manuel, some might argue that a couple of those ex-managers have better credentials than their new boss.

Williams guided Toronto to the AL East title in 1989 and took the Red Sox to the wild card in 1998, 1999 and had six consecutive second-place finishes with the Red Sox and Astros from 1998 to 2003, earning AL manager of the year in ‘99.

Howe went to the playoffs in three straight seasons with the Moneyball Oakland A’s from 2000 to 2002, including back-to-back 100-win seasons in 2001 and 2002.

Lopes, the artful base stealer and Phillies nemesis from his playing days with the Dodgers, was the sacrificial lamb for three years with the Milwaukee Brewers. Nevertheless, the Phillies added 2,283 Major League victories to the coaching staff to go with Manuel’s 393.

Suddenly, the so-called overmatched Manuel has quite a bit of experience to draw upon in the dugout.

“We're going to have a hell of a staff,” he said.

That’s good, because there were a lot of whispers around the league that Manuel’s staff – specifically bench coach Gary Varsho – wasn’t doing him any favors. Varsho, after all, was Manuel’s right-hand man for in-game tactical decisions. But when Varsho was working in the same capacity on Larry Bowa’s staff, he mostly just had to position the outfield, write out the lineup card and his other administrative duties while Bowa called all the shots. But with Manuel, that lack of a heavy hand ultimately worked against him. In fact, one National League manager once told me to “tell Varsho to keep giving Charlie that good advice.”

Yes, it was a joke, but it wasn’t complimentary either.

On the new staff, Williams will be the bench coach and coordinate spring training the way John Vukovich used to. Howe, an infielder with those good Astros teams in the late 1970s and early 1980s, will be the third-base coach and infield instructor. Lopes will be the first-base coach and base running and outfield instructor.

Lopes could have a big influence on Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino on the base paths.

Conversely, if the Phillies struggle out of the gate in 2007, or Manuel, inexplicably, loses the clubhouse, GM Pat Gillick doesn’t have to look far for a replacement manager. In that regard will Charlie be sleeping with one open? Is he going to cast sidelong glances over his shoulder to see what his lieutenants are doing?

Nope. At least that’s what he says.

“Not at all,” Manuel said. “I feel good about it. These guys are going to be helpful to me and our club.

Gillick says – at least publically – that Manuel shouldn’t worry about anything but doing his job.

“More ideas, more imagination,” Gillick said. “These are the type of resources you need on a staff for your manager to draw on.”

Apparently, as stated previously, Manuel didn’t have that during his first two seasons.

He has it now.

“Charlie is the man, and we're going to do everything we can to help him be successful,” said Howe, who has a reputation for being one of the friendliest men in baseball despite the fact that he managed the Mets for two years. For normal folks, that experience is enough to make one turn his back on all of humanity.

Not Howe. Now he’s working for Charlie and the Phillies – the loosest and happiest team in the National League.

Et cetera
Though it’s not exactly a scoop or a well-kept secret, Gillick says he wants to try to deal Pat Burrell again. Apparently, the club had a deal with Baltimore last July but Burrell invoked his no-trade clause to remain in Philadelphia.

Said Gillick: “We're going to have to continue to look for a little more offense. We know that at this point, Pat has had a difficult time protecting [Ryan] Howard. We're going to have to continue to have to make an adjustment in that area. And naturally, we're going to have to continue to improve our pitching.

Gillick says the American League champion Tigers have advanced so quickly because of their pitching.

“I think one thing that's been proven is how well Detroit has pitched. If you look at the seven games they've won, it all goes back to pitching.”

But in order to be a legit player in the free-agent market for the highly coveted Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez, the Phillies will have to figure out what to do with Burrell and the $27 million they owe him for the next two seasons.

Coming up…
Musings from the NLCS and a look ahead to this weekend’s Ironman Triathlon in Hawaii and the Chicago Marathon, which unofficially kicks off the Fall marathoning season.

Plus, the opening game of the World Series is this Saturday in Detroit.

A little help?

The big victory over the Marlins last night was pretty amazing when all that the team went through is taken into consideration. It would seem to me that playing an important baseball game when the team did not get to the hotel in Miami until 8:30 a.m. could have an effect on some players.

Not these Phillies.

Trade away Bobby Abreu, David Bell, Rheal Cormier and Cory Lidle? No problem. Have the general manager go on record saying the team was two years away? Pee-shaw. Start an important game at 11:30 p.m. after a four-hour, 32-minute rain delay, and wait on a bus until close to 4 a.m. figuring which airport has a pilot to fly the team to Miami?

Is that all you have?

Now all the Phillies need is for the Padres and/or Dodgers to lose two games in a row.

Of course, the Phillies have to win but that seems like the easy part. Any team that can go through what the Phils have during the past week with the homer stolen from Chase Utley on Tuesday, the 14-inning game on Wednesday, and the debacle with the rain on Thursday.

“All of a sudden, things went sour," Manuel said. “We've had to overcome some things, too. But as I look back, I see hustle. I see concentration. The outcome doesn't indicate the level of effort. At the same time, we've made a lot of mistakes. We haven't gotten it done. And it's hard to put your finger on why.”

Part of the reason why was that MLB bent down and puckered up to smooch FOX on the rump. When the Phillies were trying to get Thursday night’s game rained out so they could get to Florida before the sun came up, the reason they got from the wizards at MLB was that the Giants and Cardinals might have to play on Monday.

Huh?

According to folks following the team in Miami, the Phillies were told by MLB that the league was concerned about the possibility that the Giants and Cardinals would have to play a makeup game on Monday and that FOX was worried that it would only have American League games to broadcast when the Division series start on Tuesday.

Seriously. No joke.

But, of course, the Phillies had to win more than one game in Washington for their whine to have any cheese. Winning cures a lot of ills and the Phillies didn’t do that at RFK.

Even though the Phillies failed to take advantage of wonderful opportunities on Tuesday – when they went 11 straight plate appearances with runners in scoring position without plating a run – and Thursday when they squeaked out just five singles, they somehow find themselves breathing.

Better yet, with the core of the team set to return next season it’s hard not think that the Phillies will stash this run away in the memory banks. Yeah, they came close last year, too, but this year feels different. It might feel even more different next season if the Phillies’ outfield “improves its speed” in a way general manager Pat Gillick wants.

Of course, when I heard Gillick mention how he wanted the team to improve its speed in the outfield, I took that to mean, “We want to get rid of Burrell.”

Funny, Jim Leyland wanted to do the same thing.

Nevertheless, Burrell hit the ball hard on Thursday and Friday nights and will finish the season with some decent-looking numbers. For Burrell, 29 homers and 95 RBIs is nothing to sneeze at. Yet to mull over Burrell’s season now, after all that has been written, is nothing more than piling on.

So, since we have the time and the space, let’s think about the Phillies’ lineup for 2007:

c – ?
1b – Howard
2b – Utley
3b – ?
ss – Rollins
lf – Dellucci?/Conine?
cf – Rowand
rf – Victorino

Bench
Bourn
Coste
Roberson
Nunez

Starters
Lieber
Myers
Hamels
Moyer
Wolf?

Bullpen
Gordon
Geary
Madson
Smith
White
?
?

Observations with 10 games to go

Based on just looking around and listening, here are a few observations about the surging Phillies:

After injuries and other maladies curbed his first handful of pro seasons, it finally looks as if Cole Hamels is going to make to the end of one unscathed. Who would have guessed that Hamels first full season would come in the big leagues?

Be that as it may, Hamels is 6-3 with a 2.67 ERA over his last 10 starts, so it seems as if he’s getting stronger. According to his teammates, he’s just the same old Cole.

"That’s his personality," catcher Chris Coste said. "He’s strong minded. He knows what he can do. Whether it’s the middle or July or the seventh game of the World Series, he’s the same guy. That’s just the way he is. Whether it’s a playoff game or a game like this one, he’s the guy you want on the mound."

Said fellow lefty Randy Wolf: "He has one of the three best changeups in baseball."

Johan Santana is at the top of that list, according to Wolf.

Trading for Jamie Moyer and Jeff Conine was a masterstroke by general manager Pat Gillick and his assistant Ruben Amaro Jr. Forget what those guys are doing on the field, it’s in the clubhouse where the influence is really important.

Moyer and Conine, both 40 and over, are two classic lead-by-example guys, who have shown the youngsters on the Phillies how to prepare and get into the right frame of mind to play. Both guys are intense, they do their homework, and they bring an organic intensity to every task. Moyer and Conine are not in Philadelphia to goof around – they’re here to win.

In 2003 the Marlins picked up Conine for the stretch run and he helped his team hammer the Phillies to win the wild-card and contributed to the World Series run. More important than his home runs to beat the Phillies was the attitude he brought to the Marlins. I remember Juan Pierre watching how the veteran prepared every day and said he was afraid to talk to Conine because, “He always looks like he’s mad.”

It turns out Conine wasn’t mad. He’s just hungry.

Yeah, there are nine games left and the Phillies are as close to a playoff berth as they have been since 1993. Every victory puts them just a tiny bit closer. However, I still don’t feel it yet. Maybe it’s from watching too many Phillies games over the years, but I’m going to wait until the very end and reserve judgment.

Be that as it may, I think the Padres will win the NL West. Call it a hunch.

Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, here’s something interesting from Will Carroll’s injury column that could have some bearing on this weekend’s series:

Miguel Cabrera has missed a couple games with a strained shoulder, the result of an awkward lunge at an outside pitch. Cabrera’s injury isn’t considered serious, but could keep him out for the rest of the season. The team is focused on getting past the controversy surrounding their manager and one way to do that would be finishing at or above .500. Cabrera’s return might well be tied to the chances of hitting that magic number. The MVP candidate should have no long-term concerns from the injury.

Carroll’s column is stellar stuff, though Howie Bryant’s steroids-in-baseball book was far superior to Carroll’s.

I play hunches, but at BP they use science. Here are the latest postseason odds as generated by the folks at BP simulating the final 10 games of the season a million times:

Phillies are on pace to win 84.1 games, which gives them a 46.53874 percent chance to win the wild card. However, the Padres (85.4 victories) and the Dodgers (84.7), still rate above the Phillies.

Can you say playoff game in Philadelphia on Oct. 2?

Manuel and Gillick on Myers

MANUELWhen I listened to him, it was something that comment they put out described it so there’s nota whole lot more I can add to it.

I didn’t say too much too him.

I think getting back on the mound will be good for him and I think he’s ready. I don’t think this is going to be a big distraction at all for him.

(matured) I don’t know what I want to say about that.

(Belle) Not to our players it wasn’t. We faced different problems in Cleveland. Usually when a guy played, he played good. A pitcher pitched god and a player played good.

This morning around 8 a.m.

Gotta be able to take it I guess and handle it.

(Team) I think they’ll definitely rally behind him. I think if they like him, they’ll get behind him and I think they have respect for him.

(Reaction) My first reaction was I wanted everything to be all right.

(25 stay with through career) I think these things have a way of working themselves out.

(Michaels) I think that we handled that pretty good.

(reflection) I want our team to be perceived to be what it is. Of the teams in the big leagues that I’ve been around, I think we have an outstanding group of guys. You have problems with every single one of them. Problems are a part of life. Problems are something you work through.

(on Manuel) Do I think it reflects on me? Absolutely not.

GILLICK How troubling is this for you and the team? At this point, it's a sensitive issue, and I certainly think that anything affects the players or our team, we take it very seriously.

Expect Myers to be mentally ready? I think he will be. I think he's the type of guy who, when he gets between the stripes on the field, I think he'll certainly be competitive. One of the things with Brett is sometimes he's a little too competitive and overthrows a little bit. I think he might be a little emotional tomorrow.

Support for Brett? Again, we offer whatever support for he and his wife. Whatever needs they might have, the Phillies are her to support not only Brett and Kim, but any of our players.

Skipping him tomorrow? You'd have to ask the manager about that. I don't make that.

As a longtime baseball man, do you think it's a good idea for him to pitch? I think he'll be fine and it's in the best interests of the club. He's been our best pitcher. I think it's in the best interests of the club that he pitches tomorrow.

Spoken to him? Yeah, I've had an opportunity to talk to him.

State his mind? I can't comment on that.

Did he tell you what happened? I can't comment on that, basically, because this is ongoing from a legal standpoint.

I found out early this morning.

My indication was that he wanted to pitch tomorrow. You'd have to talk to Charlie and Rich, but I don't think there was much thought about skipping him.

Significant distraction? I think our players are professional. When you go out on the field, you try to put any distraction behind you, whatever it might be. When you're on the field, there's intensity. I think that's what our players will do.

Reaction? It's an unfortunate situation. I wish whatever did occur didn't occur.

Embarrassment? I don't know that it's an embarrassment. It's certainly something that we're very sensitive to. We're going to be supportive of the players no matter what the situation is.

Discipline? There have been some charges made, and I think we have to wait until the outcome of whatever proceedings the commonwealth of Massachussetts brings forward. I think you have to wait until the outcome before you think about discipline.

Stand Pat

General manager Pat Gillick made a rare pre-game appearance on the field before yesterday’s game. No, Gillick isn’t avoiding anything, he’s just busy and perhaps I’m still used to seeing the last GM – dressed in suit, jacket and tie – down on the field before every game. Obviously, Pat Gillick has a different way of doing things.

Nevertheless, Gillick took the time to talk to a few of the scribes before the game and addressed a few issues regarding the baseball team. Among them:

On the recent spate of losses "It's more of the way we've played. We haven't played real smart. We've made some stupid mistakes. We haven't played a lot of really good, clean games."

On the starting pitching "Our starting pitching has been so inconsistent. That really, I think, sets the tone. Hopefully, we can get some consistency."

"That's the only way you put a streak together. (During the team's May winning streak), when you look at it, our starting pitching earned run average was very respectable. That's why, I think, we won the games."

On a potential trade to get more pitching "I think that those people who are going to move pitching are probably going to wait toward the end of the deadline, closer to July 31st."

On the amount of deals in the next month "I think those people who are going to move pitching are probably going to wait until toward the end of the deadline... . Whoever moves, I think they're going to be getting a premium."

And most revealing…

"There's probably clubs out there that have more to offer than we do."

As he has always maintained, Gillick said the team has no “untouchables.” However, it will be very difficult to trade "5 and 10" guys like Rheal Cormier and Mike Lieberthal, as well as players with high salaries and no-trade clauses like Bobby Abreu, David Bell, Pat Burrell, Randy Wolf (can’t trade a player on DL anyway) and Jon Lieber.

On top of that, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Cole Hamels, players with relatively low salaries, are the nucleus of the franchise and won’t be going anywhere.

In other words, don’t count on the Phillies making a blockbuster this season.