Howard's end

We interrupt the trade chatter and the latest disappointingloss in order to strap on the rose-colored glasses with a hypothetical.

Ready?

Let’s say the Phillies figure out the mess that has placed them in the middle of a 1-5 road trip, they relearn how to score runs and get into the playoffs for a fourth season in a row. Hey, it could happen, after all they benefited from the Mets’ collapse in 2007, overcoming a deficit worse than the one they face now. Anyway, so if the Phillies get into the playoffs and Ryan Howard continues to produce at the current rate, is he the MVP again?

Like mentioned before, this is a hypothetical and since there are two-and-a-half months remaining in the season, there still is a lot to be determined. However, the one thing that is guaranteed is that Howard will hit at least 40 home runs and top 120 RBIs this season.

Let’s put those numbers in perspective for a moment before we get into the real reason why Howard could be the MVP.

Currently, Howard is one of four players in Major League Baseball history to reach the 40-120 plateau in four consecutive seasons. If Howard were to get there again this year, he would join Babe Ruth as the only players to club 40 homers and drive in 120 runs in five consecutive seasons.

For even more historical perspective on Howard’s numbers, he has 714 RBIs in 824 career games which comes to an average of 140 RBIs per 162 games. Considering that Hall of Famers Harmon Killebrew and Jim Rice maxed out at 140 RBIs in a season and that Howard’s career-high is 149, it shows Howard’s historical and uncanny consistency.

Howard hit four homers in four games last weekend at Wrigley Field, one that bounced out onto Sheffield Avenue that witnesses say was the longest hit in the ballpark this season, and appears to be getting into that zone he finds during the last few months of every season.

Oh yeah, that late-season surge. Though they say there is no way to apply a metric to how “clutch” a hitter is, maybe we can try with Howard, so here it goes:

Of Howard’s 243 career homers, 96 of them have come during the final two months of the season, while 247 of his 714 RBIs have come during the same time period. Yes, that’s 40 percent of his career home run total and 35 percent of his RBIs when the games seem to matter the most.

Homers and RBIs don’t do anything for you? OK, try this—Howard’s OPS in September is 1.112 with a .314 batting average, and his second half OPS is 1.047.

That points to the fact that Howard gets going when a lot of players start to wind down. You know how they compare Howard to other big sluggers that faded out during their early 30s with injuries and broken down bodies? Guess what? They were wrong. Hey, I was one of those guys and once put Howard in the same class as guys like Mo Vaughn, Greg Luzinski and Boog Powell—big fellas who piled up the numbers early and faded soon after their 30s. I’ll admit it, I was wrong, wrong, wrong. Howard is an athlete. He’s big, but not built like those other guys and he’s never been injured. He had a sinus infection, but never an injury. Not once.

None of this explains why Howard could be an MVP in 2010, though. To start, his strikeouts are down a bit and as a result his batting average is right around .300. His slugging is down slightly, but he’s on base for a career-high in hits, doubles and runs.

Howard’s also on pace to lead the National league in RBIs for a fourth straight season. No one in Major League Baseball history has ever led the league in RBIs for straight seasons.

Howard will have competition, of course. Count on Albert Pujols being in the mix, along with Joey Votto from Cincinnati, David Wright from the Mets and Corey Hart from Milwaukee to name a few. However, special recognition goes to players who carry their teams into the playoffs and if the Phillies get there it likely will be because Howard takes them there.

Yes, the Phillies need some pitching and some support for Howard since Jayson Werth appears to have gone into the tank. Still, Howard is the man for the Phillies. He’s been the team’s best hitter and the go-to guy in the clubhouse, as well. In the quiet din of the clubhouse after games, Howard has assured the traveling media that they could rely on him for quotes and insight. No, it doesn’t sound like much, but that’s leadership that often goes unnoticed. See, Howard does the dirty work of dealing with the press so his teammates can go about their business. Pete Rose famously did that for the Big Red Machine and the 1980 Phillies, allowing Joe Morgan and Mike Schmidt to become MVPs.

The difference in this case is that Howard is the MVP. He’s been rewarded with the big, fat contract and as a result has kept the team on his back. If the Phillies rally to get back to the playoffs, Howard will have earned that salary and he’ll probably have the numbers to show it, too.

Albert makes it easy

If there is one thing we do well in the sports world, it’s our ability to complain. Oh, we whine, too. It doesn’t matter the motive or motivation—there are very few things sports folks do better than complain.

That’s especially the case amongst my brethren in the media. If something isn’t just so, get ready for an earful. Hey, I’m as guilty as the next guy even though when one breaks it down we are paid to travel around, see the country, watch ballgames and write about what we see.

What are we complaining about?

Nevertheless, there is always something. Lately I’ve had a bit of a beef with the voting results from the Baseball Writers Association of America. I thought J.A. Happ should have been the Rookie of the Year and Charlie Manuel probably should have finished a little higher in the balloting than sixth place.

Additionally, the two guys who did not include Chris Carpenter on their Cy Young Award ballot and replaced them with Javier Vazquez (what?) and Dan Haren (really?) should be forced to a Dr. Strangelove-type of torture in which their eyes are held open by metal prongs as the VORP of every player in the Majors passes on a projector.

The guy who gave a first-place vote to Miguel Cabrera for MVP can join them.

Still, the bottom line is I just don’t like the BBWAA. I’m just not into omnipotent secret societies with no oversight, and too much arrogance, but that’s me. Hey, I wouldn’t join the Elks, Moose Lodge, the Birch Society, KKK, Triple-A, Skull and Bones or Augusta National, either. Hey, I’m just not a joiner. But worse, I don’t like that the players’ union, MLB or the Hall of Fame hands them the responsibility of selecting the players who can make the most money.

Which is what they do.

I’m not for getting rid of the awards. Heck, I even like them even though there is something of an Academy Awards feel to them. How can they give a best actor award to guys who didn’t play the same part?

There is a way to do it properly, which is to have Commissioner Costas form a voting taskforce of the best baseball minds from all facets of the media. Just make sure they have a good attendance record at ball games during the summer. How about 110 games during the regular season? That’s two-thirds of the season… good number, right?

Or not. Whatever. It’s just baseball.

Baseball, however, does not seem to be what Albert Pujols is playing. Fact is, he’s playing a different game entirely and was justly bestowed his third MVP Award on Tuesday in an even more just unanimous vote.

In other words, this one was pretty difficult to mess up.

Credit Pujols for being so great. In fact, dig through the archives of this site and there are probably three or four posts about how Albert Pujols is the best hitter I’ve ever seen (hey, they’re my eyes) and probably the best right-handed hitter ever. I tried to get Charlie Manuel to admit as much last spring when the two of us just shot the breeze in his office in Clearwater with the CNBC ticking off the trading day on the TV above our heads. Charlie wasn’t biting but that’s because it probably wasn’t politically correct to call an active player the best ever. That’s especially the case if the guy is in the same league, too.

Baseball people are weird about hyperbole. It’s no fun.

But what Charlie said was, “He’s up there. He can be whatever you want him to be.”

That’s not a knock of any sort – far from it. After all, we were talking about a player that truly is an once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon. In fact, Charlie said Pujols and Manny Ramirez were the two best right-handed hitters out there right now, which might be out of some sort of loyalty to his former pupil.

Come on… Pujols is clearly in a different league than Ramirez.

“Home runs, ribbies, slugging, average, he can do whatever you want,” the Charlie said. “He can be whatever you want him to be.”

That’s Charlie-speak meaning Pujols can do whatever it is the situation calls for.

That doesn’t begin to describe Pujols’ greatness though. In taking the MVP Award for the third time in five years (he probably should have four of them), there isn’t much Pujols hasn’t accomplished in nine seasons in the league. He has all the awards, gotten the big hits and, most importantly, won the World Series.

And get this, he’s nine years into his career and hasn’t even turned 30 yet.

Can we put him in the Hall of Fame already? Why deal with the formality of a vote? Who would be the guy who didn’t vote for Pujols?

Put simply, if the second nine seasons of Pujols’ career are anything like the first nine years, we’re looking at the first player in history to have more than 700 homers and 3,000 hits as well as the fourth guy to get 500 homers with more than 3,000 hits.

That’s unreasonable either. Actually, with nine straight seasons of 100-plus RBIs and only four seasons where he failed to hit at least 41 homers he’s well on his way. Considering Pujols is just now entering his prime, the numbers could pile up.

Or maybe not. As Barry Bonds described a few years back after a game in Philly during his chase for Babe Ruth’s home run mark, there might come a time when teams simply decide not to pitch to him any more.

“Albert’s going to have to deal with a lot of walks,” Bonds said. “He’s going to get walked a lot, unfortunately. He’s that good. Unfortunately, he plays in the National League, and when you’ve got pitchers coming up, and in a different league, it’s a little bit different. If he was in the American League, we might be saying something different, but in the National League, if he keeps going the way he’s going, he’s going to be walked a ton.”

Yeah, we might be getting to that point now. Pujols got 44 intentional walks last season, plus three in three games during the playoffs.

So was Pujols the MVP this year? Yeah, but why not just give him the award in perpetuity and tell him to give it back when he’s finished.

2006 NL Awards

The BBWAA awards ballots have to be in when the regular season ends, so for fun, here’s who I would have voted for in all of the categories:

Rookie of the Year (top 3 in order)
1.) Ryan Zimmerman, Washington
2.) Hanley Ramirez, Florida
3.) Dan Uggla, Florida

Manager of the Year (top three in order)
1.) Joe Girardi, Florida
2.) Willie Randolph, New York
3.) Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia

Cy Young Award (top three in order)
1.) Brandon Webb, Arizona
2.) Trevor Hoffman, San Diego
3.) Carlos Zambrano, Chicago

Most Valuable Player (top 10 in order)
1.) Albert Pujols, St. Louis
2.) Ryan Howard, Philadelphia
3.) Lance Berkman, Houston
4.) Alfonso Soriano, Washington
5.) Miguel Cabrera, Florida
6.) Jose Reyes, New York
7.) Jason Bay, Pittsburgh
8.) Aramis Ramirez, Chicago
9.) Chase Utley, Philadelphia
10.) Carlos Beltran, New York

Howard is the MVP

Forget the numbers for a second. Often in baseball people get too hung up on the numbers and lose sight of the people and the game. After all, that's what draws us to the game, right?

How can anyone quantify that running catch Michael Bourn had in right field the other night in his big league debut? Well, yeah, I'm sure some egghead can whip up some type of formula to show that Bourn's catch was the 463rd best by a right fielder in his Major League debut. But that's not the point -- the point is that Bourn ran like a freakin' gazelle, extended his arm as high as it could go and softly cradled the ball into his black glove just before he nearly flattened himself into the outfield fence.

That, folks, is baseball. Leave the numbers to the stat geeks -- we'll take the game.

Digressing a bit, I'm reminded of a conversation I had with Scott Rolen a few years ago. When presented with the notion that he could very well be the best fielding third baseman ever to play the game, Rolen shifted his feet uncomfortably for a few seconds before answering, "You know, that's nice, but I really don't think there is any way you can determine that. Every game and every player is different and a lot of people being compared never played during the same time."

He was using an old but popular argument about how it was difficult to compare players from different eras, etc. It's a valid argument, of course, and it wasn't just a matter of Rolen trying to be diplomatic, either. He just didn't want to think about being better than anyone else. Something tells me he's like that in a lot of facets of his life.

Nevertheless, I told him that, yes, indeed, there are ways to determine who the best is. Smart people with real jobs and the ability to make numbers sing have come up with formulas and hyperbola showing who could do what and all that jazz.

Basically, living, breathing people had been reduced to cold, hard numbers in order to prove something that most baseball people think is silly. The numbers may show something, but they don't tell the story.

Numbers don't show how hard Randy Wolf and Rolen worked during the off season in order to play this year. Numbers don't show how Curt Schilling was able to get all of those strikeouts by studying all of the hitters with John Vukovich. Numbers don't show the size of Charlie Manuel's spirit after he battled a heart attack and cancer to return to a Major League bench.

You can have the numbers. Give me something I can touch.

You want to know what else the numbers don't show? How about how important Ryan Howard has been to the Phillies during their chase for the wild card. Oh sure, there are the home runs and the RBIs with the slugging, OBP, OPS and batting average that will put him in the horserace with Albert Pujols for the NL MVP Award. In that regard, yes, the numbers do tell a big portion of the story.

But they can't quantify the veteran things Howard has been doing since he has come to the big leagues to stay last summer.

Veteran things?

By that I mean making himself available to the media before and after every game no matter what happened previously. Win, lose, embarrassment, controversy, celebration or whatever the occasion, Howard has been dependable. In fact, last season there were times when Howard was the only player to speak for the team during a difficult period for the team. Now how is a rookie, who had not even played a complete Major League season, going to be the spokesman for the team? I guess that's just who Ryan Howard is.

Accountability is a lost art that transcends sports. When a "stand up" guy is identified, people have a way of gravitating toward that person. That's kind of the way it has been for the Phillies this year.

Certainly this group of Phillies has a lot of stand up guys. Howard, Wolf, Rowand, Conine, Gordon, Coste, Moyer, Madson, Victorino, Dellucci, Hamels... the list continues. But when one of the big stars is doing the dirty work -- like handling the media and all of the other extenuating non-baseball things – it doesn’t go unnoticed. It may not seem like a big deal to the casual fan or the number crunchers, but if Ryan Howard is standing up in front of the media, it means other players don’t have to. Instead, those guys can get the treatment they need, or they can go home and rest so they can be fresh for the game the next day.

In baseball, the little things matter just as much as the 56 homers, 138 RBIs and .311 batting average.

The numbers add up
Last season there was some debate whether Howard was going to win the rookie of the year award over Jeff Francoeur of Atlanta and Willy Taveras of Houston. Actually, let me rephrase that -- there was some debate amongst people who didn't know any better. For those of us who spoke with rookie of the year voters, we knew Howard was going to win the award easily and thought the idea of the debate was silly.

But sometimes sports media is very silly.

Nevertheless, it seems as if some of the MVP voters are giving Howard a really long look. And based on what's happening in the final month of the season, Howard just might be sprinting for the finish.

Whether or not he passes Pujols remains to be seen.

Where's the hype?

Let’s play a little game of make believe, shall we?

Like, let’s make believe there is no such thing as androstenedione. Or better yet, let’s pretend that the scientists who came up with “The Cream” and “The Clear” never told anyone that their little invention had sports performance-enhancing traits. How about if they figured out ways to make the ointments cure cancers or diseases instead of making over-muscled men hit baseballs farther or run faster?

While we’re at it, let’s pretend Bud Selig, the Major League owners and the players’ association all worked together to put effective, and Olympic-quality drug testing in place during the mid 1990s. Or how about if the athletes who used (and use) human growth hormone thought, “You know, I could use this and it would make me stronger and recover faster so I can work out twice as hard and hit those baseballs really far. That would probably mean a few extra million dollars in my next contract, but you know what? There’s some sick little kid who might need this more than me.”

Let’s pretend that because of everything listed above, Mark McGwire didn’t hit 70 home runs in 1998 or 65 in 1999. Or that Sammy Sosa didn’t hit 66, 63 or 64 homers in ’98, ’99 or 2001, respectively. Suppose Barry Bonds didn’t hit 73 homers in 2001, and continued to average his 33 homers per season like he did prior to the 2001 campaign. At that rate – if he were still playing – he might be threatening the 700-home run plateau. Maybe then there would be some excitement about Bonds’ feats instead of the collective yawn his homers receive as he approached Hank Aaron’s all-time mark.

Pretend all of things happened, or didn’t happen.

Now pretend you’re a Phillies fan watching Ryan Howard. How excited would you be right now?

Though the Phillies’ smiling slugger is on pace to become just the third player in Major League history to reach the mythical 60-home run plateau and not sit in front of a Congressional sub-committee or grand jury so that a bunch lawyers could ask what he took to hit the ball so far, there could be so much more excitement. Philadelphia could be the focus of the sporting world right now as Howard zeroed in on Babe Ruth and Roger Maris. He would be a national icon instead of just the guy who beat Mike Schmidt’s record for most homers in a season by a Phillie.

Remember how everyone checked the box scores every morning or stayed up late to catch the sports highlights to see if McGwire or Sosa smacked another one during the ’98 season? Remember how they said that chase rekindled the nation’s interest in baseball and turned the casual fans into degenerate seamhead stat freaks? That could all be happening right here, right now.

Thanks to his player-of-the-month August where he slugged 14 homers, and this past week where he hit six bombs in seven days, including three in consecutive plate appearances against the Braves last Sunday, Howard needs eight more home runs in the final 24 games to tie Maris’. In fact, Howard’s output has been so prolific that his slugging and the Phillies’ wild-card chances have become the talk of the town instead of the Eagles’ season opener this Sunday in Texas somewhere. Questions like, “Do you think he can hit 60?” have been the focus of conversation instead of “Do you think the Eagles can get back to the playoffs?”

Phillies games are now divided into three, quick need-to-know categories:

Did he hit one?

Did they win?

How far back are they?

But it’s Howard and the “what if” game that is the most intriguing. Because we have to wonder what happened in those darkened corners of baseball before there was serious drug policy, it kind of throws a wet-blanket over Howard’s season. For instance, since Howard is not chasing the record, as he very well could be, his season will be memorable only in our little provincial world. Sure, he could win the MVP Award this season, but we’re still missing out on the daily media frenzy.

Worse, because it is assumed that Bonds, Sosa and McGwire were cheaters, people will always wonder about Howard, too. Indirectly – even with power exploits going back to when he was 12-years old and hit a home run that went so far that it crashed into a Red Lobster – Howard is a victim of the steroid era.

Columnists and talk-show types, who never show up to the ballpark to chat with Howard even though he is always waiting in front of his locker on the front right side of the clubhouse, can flex with no-it-all poses about how Howard is under suspicion. Very easily, those people can show up at the park and walk right up to the easy-going and accessible slugger and ask him, point blank, if he’s juiced.

The answer, as reported by Paul Hagen in the Daily News:

“People are entitled to their opinions,” he said, rolling his eyes. “But it does bother me. It casts a shadow on the game.

“I know I'm not using steroids. This barrel right here [pointing to his stomach] is proof enough. People are going to say what they want to say. I thought about it once and then it was like, ‘Well, whatever.’ I'm not doing it. If they want to test me, they can test me.

“I just think it sucks. The thing about it is, if you're going to make those kinds of comments, have proof. Otherwise, you can ruin people's reputations.”

Howard is already making his own glowing reputation. Aside from the huge numbers – he has a chance to become just the fifth player in history to hit better than .300, smash 50 homers and drive in 150 runs – Howard is accountable. Not just for the media, but for his teammates, too.

Count on this: Howard will never sit in front of a Congressional committee and say: “I’m not here to talk about the past… ”

MVP?

Around these parts, Ryan Howard has slugged his way into the debate for NL MVP. And why not? With a homer in four straight games, Howard leads the Majors with 48 home runs as well as with 125 RBIs.

But nationally Howard isn’t getting as much respect as in Philly and that’s especially the case with that stat folks and logical types at Baseball Prospectus. According to a story on the BP site by Joe Sheehan, Ryan Howard isn’t even the MVP on the Phillies.

Here’s an excerpt from the story:

Apparently, the NL MVP race isn’t as small as I would have it. Many, many readers--even more than the number who chimed in defending Jermaine Dye’s honor when I left him out of the AL MVP discussion--wrote in to question the absence of Ryan Howard from Monday’s article. Howard leads the NL in homers, RBI and slugging average. His hot August (.330/.431/.699), coupled with the Phillies’ "surge" to the vicinity of .500 and the wild-card slot, has made him a viable candidate in some quarters.

The problem isn’t just that Howard’s season is not on par with Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Beltran. The problem is that Howard isn’t the most valuable Phillies infielder on the right side of second base.

AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP FRAR WARP1
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Howard .294 .382 .628 .318 50.2 -4 5.4
Chase Utley .317 .385 .525 .300 53.5 15 6.4

Howard hits more home runs than Chase Utley. Utley and the three real MVP candidates do everything else better than Howard does. The big guy is seventh in the league in EqA, VORP and RARP, and off the charts in WARP. Once you account for position and the things baseball players do other than hit homers, he falls rapidly down the lists.

Can Howard be a serious MVP candidate when he’s three wins worse than the other first baseman in the discussion?

AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP FRAR WARP1
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Howard .294 .382 .628 .318 50.2 -4 5.4
Albert Pujols .323 .424 .665 .345 65.4 19 8.8

From here to the end of the season it will be a wide-open race. If Howard gets to 60 homers, give him the trophy… and all of the bonus clauses.

Joe Sheehan: Howard the Phillie