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Kevin Roberts

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The numbers behind the numbers (or something)

A998f46020f836c037b0e1c681de1024-getty-97635968bl020_philadelphia_ So the other day at the Phillies' home opener we were luckyenough to be graced with the presence of Kevin Roberts, the former baseball writer and columnist for the Camden Courier Post before the folks running the paper lost their minds and started cutting jobs. Anyway, Kevin only gets to do some baseball writing on a freelance basis so if you happen to run into a story with his byline on it, savor it. They don't appear as much as they should.

Though he's not hanging around the ballpark the way he used to, the mind of the ol' ball scribe is tough to reprogram. Writing about baseball on a daily basis for a number of years is not unlike being trapped on a deserted island after the plane went down. If surviving the crash and swimming through shark-invested waters to safety isn't harrowing enough, one then has to live closely with the other scribes, TV boobs, ballplayers, and coaches. You know, the dregs of society.

Though two seasons removed from steady baseball writing, Kevin's mind is still sharp. Better yet, because he is outside of the daily bubble, he has a more well rounded perspective. With that in mind, somehow the topic of Placido Polanco and his intangibles arose and Kevin proceeded to make my brain hurt.

If I were specify one player as a favorite on the Phillies, it would be Placido Polanco. It really isn't for any other reason than Polanco plays baseball by utilizing one of Charlie Manuel's great creedos to the hilt…

Know thyself.

If Polanco were a basketball player he would have been like Dennis Johnson. He would have guarded the opposition’s best player, run the point as steady as a clock, and if needed, he could drop 30. You know… all those clichés that go with one of those workhorse ballplayers that media types love to shower with all those images. That's idea of Dennis Johnson we have all these years removed from the end of the career, but the truth was he rarely scored 30 and let any other guard, he got posted up by Magic Johnson. It's the same thing with Polanco, too.

Hell, at this point it’s as if Polanco shows up to the ballpark every day with a hard hat and one of those lunch pails Jethro had in The Beverly Hillbillies.

“Peskiosity” or “scrappitude,” as Kevin called it.

“There is no metric to measure what Polanco does for a team,” I told Kevin. Actually, that might not be an exact quote, but it sounds like something I said before I launched into something about moving runners or whatever else it is guys like me put out there.

“Really?” Kevin probably said. “You’re going the hit-behind-the-runners route? How about the taking-pitches bit, too?”

Kevin is smart so his response was probably witty and pithy. Kind of like the time he punched me for ordering him a 4 a.m. wakeup call even though we were all up hanging out in his hotel room until about 3 a.m. after Game 1 of the ’08 World Series as a sort of baseball scribe version of the Algonquin Roundtable. I didn’t have to shout, “Ow! What was that for!?” when he delivered the hard right to my brachial plexus. I knew what it was for and couldn’t have come up with a better retort if I surveyed everyone in the ballpark. At least Kevin hit me... all John Gonzalez did was write about how he wanted to punch me.

What a pansy!

But during Monday's outing at the opener, the punch was delivered right between the eyes and it came in the guise of statistics. As if that wasn’t enough, Kevin retreated to the press box to compose a well-thought out argument in 20 seconds and e-mailed me. It was kind of like he was showing me just how smart he was.

Or how dumb I am.

So you think Polanco is scrappy and does all those little things that go unnoticed? Guess what? He’s not exactly the most patient hitter at the plate. For instance, Polanco is hitting .484 through the first week of games and has an on-base percentage of .500, but do you know how many of those times on base have come via a walk?

Try one.

In fact, Polanco walks less than Jimmy Rollins. Measured through 162 games, Polanco averages 35 walks for his career. In 2003 he set his career-high in walks when he got 42 of them. Better yet, throughout his career, the league average for on-base percentage is .340.

Polanco’s career on-base percentage? Try .349.

Of course Polanco strikes out approximately as much as he walks, which is where his brilliance lies. That’s where he shows what happens when a hitter does the most basic thing he can do by simply putting the ball in play.

But when Polanco gets up there, don’t blink—he’s not going to be long. Polanco is one of those see-ball, hit-ball dudes averaging 3.53 pitches per plate appearance when the league average is 3.75. For his career that figure is an impatient 3.37, as Kevin pointed out.

His e-mail read:

This why, when people say, “Stats -- pfft. I watch the games,” It means they are bleeping up. If you watch Polanco every day, because he's little and he's cute, you think he's a scrappy little bugger and the synapses in your brain fire away and tell you that scrappy little buggers foul off pitches and work the count. So you assume that Placido Polanco really knows how to work pitchers ... and right there, you bleeped it up.

What did I tell you about Kevin? He’s smart, right? Moreover, there’s probably an entire jag about stats and baseball and that tired, old argument about crusty baseball men not knowing a thing that short pop up here. But you know what… I’m not going to do it.

OK, here it goes:

I don’t consider myself a stats guy because once we move past basic math, my head starts to hurt and a tiny bit of drool starts to form on the corners of my mouth. I appreciate the innovation and the smart way of looking at the game the numbers presents. However, I’m trotting out the crusty cliché about knowing what my eyes tell me. I can see Polanco hit the ball behind the runner and get on base. I can also look at the box score and see no numbers beneath the strikeout column, which means when he got up there it was all action. The action is the best part.

But I don’t know how to prove that it’s good. I just know it is and maybe that’s why I like it so much.

Or something like that.

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Someone cue Tom Petty

down go the MetsWASHINGTON – the first thing I thought of as I pushed myself out of bed this morning was, “OK, where do I get coffee?” The second thought was, “Look, there’s the Starbucks. Could a place that sells Gatorade be nearby?”

After that I wondered if Courier Post columnist Kevin Roberts had made it back to Philadelphia OK. Kevin, you see, came to The District last night to write all about the Phillies’ comeback victory over the Nationals, which pushed them to 1½ games of the lead in the NL East. After going down to the clubhouse to discuss matters with the winning team and then back to the press box to compose his story, Kevin was scheduled to take the 3 a.m. train from Union Station back to Philadelphia. And since he wrapped things up a little after midnight, a few of us thought we’d take Kev into town to help him wile away the time until his train arrived.

Who would have guessed there was no all-night bingo parlor in all of Washington, D.C.?

Nevertheless, Kevin made it to Union Station with time to spare.

But the really big question that was baffling me the most this morning is one that supporters of the Philadelphia Phillies are not asking themselves – at least they aren’t asking themselves with any great concern (nor am I).

The question:

What in the Sam Hill is wrong with the New York Mets?

Carlos RuizIn the midst of a freefall of monumental proportions, the Mets, as Phillies’ fans are well aware, have lost six of their last seven and seven of their last nine. During that span, the Mets’ lead over the Phillies in the East has shrunk from 6½ games to 1½ heading into Friday’s games.

Mets’ skipper Willie Randolph delivered one of the understatements of the season when talking about the latest loss with reporters last night.

“We're definitely making it tough on ourselves, huh?”

Indeed. But not without some help. Last night’s game – as viewed from the press box at RFK on MLB.com’s Gamecast – seemed as surreal as it was dramatic. The Mets rallied to take a three-run the lead in the ninth when Marlon Anderson hit a bases-loaded triple with two outs, only to give those runs back in the bottom of the ninth when reliever Jorge Sosa could not close it out.

What? No Billy Wagner? Nope, according to reports ol’ Billy had back spasms and couldn’t take the ball.

Could Wagner finally be helping the Phillies get to the playoffs?

Anyway, it looks as if the Mets are getting a little tight and even the front-office types are feeling it. According to a story in Sports Illustrated, owner Jeff Wilpon is casting the blame for the Mets’ recent play on… well, everyone.

“I'm disappointed with the way the team is performing overall, and that's everyone, top to bottom,” Wilpon told Sports Illustrated. “I'm disappointed in Omar (Minaya), Willie, the players ... that's everyone. We shouldn't be in this position. But we are. We've got to fight our way out and pull this out.”

But no one has been able to explain the basic, simple question:

What in the Sam Hill is wrong with the New York Mets?

To figure it out, I put in a call to Mets’ pre- and post-game host on SNY, Matt Yallof. When Matt and I get to the bottom of this issue, I will report back right here.

The ‘pen is mighty? Posh Spice While the Mets are preparing to roll over and expose their pink, rounded belly for the Phillies to claw apart, it’s interesting to note that the Phils are making their sprint for the finish line thanks largely to the bullpen.

Yes, the Posh Spice-thin bullpen.

To follow up Tuesday’s 14-inning victory in which the relievers tossed 11 frames one-run ball, the ‘pen went seven scoreless innings last night against the Nats. Of course the memory of Monday night’s near debacle where the relievers almost coughed up an 11-run lead, but since then they have been pretty good. In the last three games the bullpen has allowed just two runs in 21 2/3 innings.

Nevertheless, 21 2/3 innings is a lot of work in just three games… especially at this point of the season.

Closing up shop In the past on these pages, I have opined about Washington’s RFK Stadium and the time I spent there in my youth. Though we could never go to see the Redskins play in the ol’ ballpark (the waiting list for tickets was something like 155 years), I can recall in vivid detail of watching the Grateful Dead and the NASL’s Washington Diplomats.

But not to bore any with more rhapsodizing over the last weekend of major league sports at RFK, I’ll turn that chore over to The Washington Post’s Tom Boswell, who writes about the lovable dump.

And it is a dump.

Finally… Chris and Julie Stover of Lancaster, Pa. finally added a girl to the Stover/Gerfin/Finger brood. The little lady arrived this morning and has yet to receive a name, but her uncle (me!) and the rest of the clan are giddy about her birth and hope that she can show her big brothers and boy cousins who the boss is.

And here we thought Chris couldn’t make a girl. Good work, big guy!

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Monday randomness

Things got pretty busy as they are wont to do during a weekend series against the Boston Red Sox, so this is my mea culpa for not offering any posts for a couple of days. I really wanted to, and certainly had plenty of stuff to write, but duty kind of called. It happens.

So what was so interesting last weekend. Well, Tito Francona was in town, which is always a treat. If anyone deserves success in this game, Francona is up there at the top of the list. He certainly has sacrificed quite a bit during a long career as a player, coach, scout and manager.

Curt Schilling was back in town, too. He's gone now and certainly the scribes are much happier, though the TV-types kind of like him. In case anyone hasn't noticed, writers and TV folk are very different. One group works for a living and the other, well... they wear makeup.

Come on, it's a joke...

Anyway, everytime I see Schilling I think back to the June, 2004 series at Fenway when I asked a former Red Sox pitcher (he'll remain nameless, though these days he pitches for the Dodgers and had a really good 2004 post-season) if he knew where the "media-friendly" pitcher was.

"Just follow the cameras," that former Red Sox pitcher said.

As an aside, that trip to Fenway was one of the most fun (in a baseball and work sense) ever. Any trip to Baltimore and Clearwater rates really high, too, but that particular weekend in Boston was really good.

As another aside, trips to Washington, my former hometown, are always a blast, too, though that has nothing to do with the baseball. Put it this way: it's hard not to have fun in Washington.

Anyway, Schilling was up to his old, teasing, preening and flirtatious ways with the local TV types last weekend. He lead them on, danced around and pretended like he had soooooooo many important things to do. But in the end, did anyone really think he was going to turn away from a rolling TV camera? Curt Schilling?

Of course not.

The writers, for the most part, ignored Schilling. That story has been told too many times, thank you very much. Besides, as erstwhile scribe Dennis Deitch suggested, perhaps it was time for a statute of limitations on Schilling stories. If a player has been out of town for seven years, it's only proper to ignore him forever. After all, that's how the IRS works, right?

So yes, Schilling was in town.

Appropos of nothing: Does anyone out there have doubts about that bloody sock?

And David Wells was in Philadelphia, too. In fact, the always chatty and round lefty was in town long enough to kind of, sort of allude to an idea that Phillies' pinch hitter David Dellucci had used steroids. From watching and listening to Dellucci speak about the comments, it was very obvious that he was very hurt and disappointed with what Wells had to say.

Since I wrote it late on Saturday night when most people were out and about doing stuff or inside sleeping, here's a reprint of what went down:

Much ado about nothing? During a pre-game conversation where he discussed everything from his upcoming minor-league rehab assignment, his age, and Barry Bonds’ 714th career home run, controversial Red Sox pitcher David Wells was his typical self. This time, though, Wells brought a former teammates and current Phillie into the mix.

While talking about baseball’s steroid controversy, Wells mentioned David Dellucci and the fact that the Phillies’ top pinch hitter has just one homer a season after stroking 29 a season ago for the Texas Rangers.

"You see a little bitty guy hitting 30 home runs, what, Dellucci, I guess?" Wells told reporters. "How many home runs did he hit last year? 29. Has he ever done that in his career? How many has he hit this year? So, the numbers have gone down tremendously since all this has come up. I know Dave, I've never suspected him of doing them."

After the game, a visibly upset Dellucci cleared his name.

“I've been tested. I've been tested this offseason. I've been tested a number of times last year,” Dellucci said. “I leave the stadium after midnight every night because I'm working out. I do that this year, and I did that in Texas.”

What Wells failed to mention is that Dellucci hit 29 homers last season in 128 games and 516 plate appearances in the hitter-friendly American League. That comes to a home run every 15 at-bats.

This season Dellucci has appeared in 34 games for 40 plate appearances primarily as a pinch hitter. If Dellucci hits a home run in his next time up, he will be averaging one home run for every 16 at-bats.

-- John R. Finger

The next day, Wells issued a kind of, sort of mea culpa through the Red Sox PR staff. Francona, in a classy move that shouldn't surprise anyone who knows him, offered an apology in person to Dellucci. Still, Dellucci was rightly still stinging from Wells' comment.

As far as the baseball stuff goes, this Red Sox club doesn't appear to be as strong as the one that stormed through Philadelphia last season, which, for me, was one of the best teams I have watched during my years on the job.

The others (in no particular order): 2001 New York Yankees 2001-02 Arizona Diamondbacks 2003 Seattle Mariners 2004 St. Louis Cardinals 2005 Boston Red Sox

Finally, Kevin Roberts of the Courier Post writes my new, favorite blog.

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