No rhyme or reason to the no-hitter

So the Phillies nearly were no-hit again on Monday night at Dodger Stadium. This time it was Hiroki Kuroda who flirted with blanking the Phillies until Shane Victorino came through with a solid single to right field with one out in the eighth inning.

For those scoring at home, there have been 19 one-hitters in the big leagues this season and the Phillies were involved in four of them. There also have been five no-hitters—excluding the no-so perfect game from Armando Galarraga—the most since 1991 when there were seven no-hitters, which was the dawn of the so-called steroid era.

Can the level field between pitching and hitting be as simple as improved drug testing?

That's a question that will be answered in time. For now, however, we have to figure what can we make of this and why the pitching has caught up to hitting.

Either way, there is a rebirth of extraordinary well-pitched games. Of the 20 perfect games (21 if you count Galarraga), three of them (four if you count… you know) have come since July of 2009. That’s 15 percent of all the perfect games in history happening within a 10-month span.

It also means that after being one-hit three times this season, the Phillies are about due for the ol’ no-no…

Doesn’t it?

Well, yes and no. Historically, no-hitters have existed in a vacuum. There were no hints or warnings that they were going to happen. For instance, before the White Sox’s Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game against the Rays in July of 2009, there was no event that gave off a warning sign that it was about to happen. In fact, before the perfect game, the Rays had won four of six and were 5 games off the pace in the AL East. If there were candidates of teams to be no-hit, the Rays were hardly at the top of the list.

But since that perfect game, the Rays have been involved in three no-hitters. One of those was a perfect game by Dallas Braden in Oakland, followed by an eight-walk, 149-pitch no-no in Arizona by Edwin Jackson.

Despite the fact that the Rays (81-50) are tied for the best record in baseball with the Yankees, they also have been one-hit twice and two-hit twice this season. In fact, the Rays have been two-hit, one-hit or no-hit at least once every month this season. With September to start on Wednesday, the Rays are due again.

It appears as if the Phillies are in the same boat as the Rays only without the perfect game out in front. Since April 16, 1978 when the Cardinals’ Bob Forsch threw a no-hitter against the Phillies, the team has not been beaten by an official no-hitter. Yes, there was the rain-shortened, five-inning no-no by the Expos’ Pascual Perez in late 1988, but that doesn’t count in the official records.

Better yet, the Phillies have been so resistant to extraordinary pitching that since Forsch threw his no-hitter, they had been victims of a one-hitter just 11 times heading into this season. Yes, that’s just 11 one-hitters in 31 seasons.

So clearly the Phillies are making up for lost time. This season they have been one-hit three times (Daisuke Matsusaka, R.A. Dickey, Kuroda) which is the exact number of times the Phillies had been one-hit since 1994. Plus, if we figure that the Rays were coming off a season in which they got to the World Series and had only been one-hit or no-hit four times in their entire existence (going back to 1998), the Phillies are ripe for the taking.

Then again, who knows with these things. Before 1978 it seemed like the Phillies were the easiest team to throw a no-hitter against. From 1960 to 1972, the Phillies came up on the zero end of things in the hits category eight times, including two in the same season (1960) to the Milwaukee Braves. Meanwhile, in the World Series era, Philadelphia pitchers have tossed just 13 no-hitters, with eight of those coming from Phillies pitchers.

Perhaps the only thing we’ve been able to determine through all of this is no-hitters and Philadelphia don’t go together all that well. Adding in the fact that the New York Mets have not had a single no-hitter in their history and the Dodgers have had 20, these are events that occur totally at random.

And with a lot of luck.

The NLCS: Pre-game 3 notes and whatnot

So how is this for the weather sampler: last week at this time we were watching the coldest playoff baseball in history in snowy and chilly Denver, only to be watching a workout in Los Angeles two days later as temperatures pushed into the 90s.

Now we’re back in Philadelphia where it actually feels colder than it did in Denver simply because we were teased with that dry, hot Southern California air. Plus, it feels windier here in Philly because the put the ballpark down in an area devoid of buildings or large structures and near a geographical anomaly where two major rivers converge.

Yep, it’s chilly.

For Cliff Lee, it will be two straight chilly nights on the mound. Certainly it wouldn’t seem ideal for a guy from Arkansas, but according to Southern California guy Randy Wolf, a pitcher who actually likes to pitch in the chilly weather, the pitcher is always the warmest guy on the field.

“I’ve always had a tough time pitching in Atlanta and Florida and I sometimes I turn about three shades pink and I overheat,” Wolf said. “In the cold I feel more alert, I feel like my energy level is always there and the fact that you can blow on your hands when you’re on the mound in cold weather, your hands are only affected. As a pitcher you’re the only guy that’s moving on every pitch. The pitcher has probably the easiest job of keeping warm.”

Here are your pre-game factoids and whatnot:

• Sunday night’s game is the 21st time a NLCS has been tied at 1-1. Of the previous 20 Game 3s played in a 1-1 series, the home team won 13 of them. More notably, the winner of Game 3 in those instances went on to win the series 12 times.

• The Phillies are 2-5 in Game 3 of the NLCS. Both of the Phillies’ wins in Game 3s are against the Dodgers (1978 and 1983).

• Coming into Sunday night’s game, the Phillies are 6-for-60 against Dodgers’ starter Hiroki Kuroda. That does not include Game 3 of the 2008 NLCS where Kuroda gave up five hits in six innings of a 7-2 victory. Counting that, the Phillies are 11-for-83 (.133).

• Finally, Ryan Howard can break the all-time single season record for playoff games with an RBI on Sunday night. He is currently tied with Carlton Fisk with six straight games in the playoffs with an RBI, which Fisk did during the 1975 World Series. The amount of RBIs Fisk had in those six games? Try six.

The all-time record for consecutive games with an RBI in the playoffs is eight by Lou Gehrig in the 1928 and 1932 World Series.

Fishing for a Carp?

Come on... did anyone really think the Phillies were going to sign Curt Schilling? For that matter, did anyone really believe that Schilling wanted to sign with the Phillies? Or the Brewers?

Or the Diamondbacks?

Or the Tigers?

Or the Astros?

Or the Mets?

Or any other team he listed on his 38pitches.com site?

Nope, me either.

For the Phillies, Schilling was that girl that was way out of everyone's league, but taunted everyone by thinking she was cool and down to earth. Ha! No one ever had a chance.

So what do the Phillies do now that their top choice to fill out the rotation has decided to remain in Boston? Who else is out there on the free-agent market? What about Tom Glavine? He really helped the Phillies' playoff chances with his pitching down the stretch - could he do it in 2008, too?

Doubtful. Besides, the Phillies already have an over-40, soft-tossing lefty. Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva are two pitchers on the free-agent market that could fill the starting-pitching void, though the Phillies would likely have to commit a lot of money and years to either man. Meanwhile, the White Sox Jon Garland and the Marlins' Dontrelle Willis could be available in a trade, but then that opens up more issues if the Phillies want to keep those guys beyond 2008.

Where does that leave the Phillies? If they can't make a trade or add a dependable pitcher via the free-agent market, where do they look?

Japan?

Yeah, why not.

When it comes to spotting trends and entering the modern age, the Phillies have always been slow. They were the last National League team to integrate its roster; they were slow to enter the market to sign Latino ballplayers (though the Venezuelan baseball academy got good reviews); and until Tadahito Iguchi joined the team last August, the Phillies had never had a Japanese player. Maybe that's where they should look now.

Needless to say, I haven't been keeping with the action in the Pacific or Central League in Japan, but every season there are plenty of players from those leagues ready to make the jump to the Majors. This season the top starting pitcher appears to be a fellow named Hiroki Kuroda, who is a right-handed veteran with 11 seasons under his belt with the Hiroshima Carp[1]. Though Kuroda will be 33 in February, he is coming off his best three seasons for the Carp and, better yet, won't require a posting fee in order for a Major League team to negotiate with him.

According to reports, the Phillies, Royals, Dodgers and the Mariners are a few of the teams interested in Kuroda. However, Seattle might have the upper hand since the pitcher's agent lives there.

Perhaps the Phillies will take a shot. If not, there's always David Wells.

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[1] See, even the names for the Japanese teams are better than ours.