M-V-P!

I’ve been reading what a lot of folks are writing in the newspapers, blogs, plogs, message boards and on billboards and I honestly believe some of these people are missing something really, really obvious about Ryan Howard.

What’s that Obi-Wan? Tell us what everyone else is missing that you, astutely noticed that we all missed…

Digressing, did I just have an argument with myself in a different voice? Have I sent our beautiful and complicated language back a day or two?

Back to the point – here’s what everyone has missed:

Ryan Howard is just going to get better. He’s going to get stronger, smarter and faster. He’s going to be able to recognize pitchers and their tendencies better. He’s going to go to the plate with a more developed plan of what he wants to do. He’s going to strike out less and walk more. As a result, his batting average and slugging percentage will rise. He will score more runs and the Phillies will win more games.

Then there are the other things away from the field. Such as Howard will learn how to work out better. He’ll learn what he can eat and can’t eat. He’ll see Pat Burrell and realize that sleep is much more important than people realize and directly affects an athlete’s performance.

He’ll learn how to say no.

He better because the world changes for guys who win the MVP Award in just their first full season in the Majors. That first full season came just a year removed from a rookie-of-the-year award and a trade of established all-star Jim Thome in order to make room for a player making just the league minimum instead of the big years and eight-figures Thome was drawing.

The Phillies will never admit it (then again, maybe they will), but the only reason they didn’t deal away Howard was because of the economics.

“He's better than I expected,” general manager Pat Gillick admitted to reporters yesterday. “Our people thought he would struggle against left-handed pitching. That's why we tried to sign Wes Helms and Eddie Perez last year. We were looking for someone to take the heat off him with a left-hander pitching. As it turned out, none of that was necessary.”

Nor will it be for the foreseeable future.

Howard is just 27. He’s still years away from his prime, which will coincide, coincidentally, with his ability to test the free-agent market if the Phillies fail to sign him to a long-term deal. Though it isn’t likely he will turn in 58 homers and nearly 150 RBIs every year, 40 and 120 isn’t out of the question. Neither are a .330 batting average, .450 on-base percentage, and 1.100 OPS.

“We laugh all the time about Ryan because he doesn't think he should ever make an out,” hitting coach Milt Thompson told reporters yesterday. “I love that about the kid. He's never satisfied. That's a sign of greatness.”

But does he need protection?

That will be the $125 million question this winter.

Soriano gone to craziest bidder
It was no secret that the Phillies coveted Alfonso Soriano as the compliment to Howard in the lineup. What they didn’t expect is that it would take eight years and a gazillion dollars to add him to the club. Apparently that's what the Chicago Cubs thought he was worth.

Good luck with that, Cubbies.

Here’s what is clear about that… Soriano is not interested in playing for a winning club. He’s a Dominican Rod Tidwell. Moreover, I hope the Phillies were just playing lip service to “being in the running” to sign Soriano. Eight years? For a 31-year-old player with no position?

Let the Cubs have that albatross of a contract.

Riding a high horse

Typically, I am never one to begrudge anyone their money/salary/bonuses, etc. This is even true of professional athletes and corporate CEOs, all of who seem to be rewarded monetarily at a rate that doesn’t jibe with experience, education and impact on society.

Besides, if all one wants to do is make money it really isn’t too difficult, interesting or legacy building. Frankly, it’s more impressive that a person leaves something than take, take, take. I’m more interested in people who create something or have an art rather than those who drive a fancy car or live in a big house.

You can’t take it with you, folks, so it’s better to give people something to enjoy.

Touchy-feely sentiment aside, it actually makes me pause for a minute when I read the salaries and deals supposedly being offered to the current crop of baseball free agents. I don’t know if disgusting is the correct word, but it certainly seems as if a bunch of baseball players are going to be compensated even more out-of-line than ever before.

I’m not the only one who thinks this way, either. According to reports from the general manager meetings in Florida, the guys offering the deals are a little turned off as well. Of course there is a way to remedy their situation, but it seems as if that horse is already out of the barn. Plus, back in 1987 it didn’t seem as if collusion amongst the teams in regard to curbing salaries was too difficult to prove.

Who in their right mind would pay $51 million simply for the right to negotiate with an unknown player from an inferior league? Is Alfonso Soriano really worth a nine-digit dollar deal? If so, will the regular baseball fan with kids, car payments and a mortgage be able to afford to go to a game without cashing in the 401K? After all, the Phillies already raised ticket prices for 2007 based on their resounding 85-victory season in 2006.

OK, let’s not get too deep into standing up for the regular fan right now because there isn’t enough space on the World Wide Web to address all of the variables and arguments. Besides, there is no way to convince me that regular folks are not getting shafted for doing nothing other than being a loyal fan.

They are getting shafted, but that’s nothing new.

Let’s just stick with the righteous indignation over the fact that out-of-shape and potentially washed-up Frank Thomas just signed a two-year, $18 million deal with the Blue Jays. Or that Wes Helms, a player who was available to any team in the league for slightly more than the minimum salary as little as a few months ago, will get close to the GNP of a third-world country to be a part-time third baseman for the Phillies.

What was most surprising to me was the report that the Diamondbacks were prepared to give Randy Wolf $21 million for three seasons.

That’s $21 million for a 69-60 lefty… I say run to the desert, Randy, and never look back.

Let me preface that by saying Randy Wolf is on my short list for favorite professional athletes of all time. There really isn’t anything bad I can write or say about that guy even if I tried. But $21 million…

God bless him.

Yet again, therein lies the problem. Certainly Randy Wolf is smart enough not to let any of the money, superficialities or other fleeting fame change anything about him, but just because someone has the right perspective is no reason for admiration. That’s basic.

But that’s the real issue, isn’t it? I honestly believe that a lot of people have lost the true sense of what athletics really is. Often we don’t appreciate the “art” anymore because we’re paying too close attention to the bottom line. That isn’t just in sports, either. Do people go to school to learn and be exposed to new ideas, experiences and concepts or simply to get through so they can get a certain job?

If so, that’s sad, and it reminds me of a conversation I had with someone in my profession not too long ago. It seems this other person and I were disparaging a certain other person’s body of work (I admit it… I can be shallow, too) when it was said, “Yeah, he might not be too good at what he does but he’s making $XXX,XXX.”

I paused for a half a beat before saying, “Yeah, that might be true, but he’s still a bleeping hack.”

Then again, I suppose that’s better than being a poorly paid hack…

Right?

Hot stove warming up

Note: This post was written before reports indicated that the Phillies signed Wes Helms to a two-year deal.

First off, I took a few days off to run another marathon, rest and eat some food that normal people like – pizza and ice cream instead of tofu, salmon and rice – and now I’m more worn out than I was before.

Cie la vie.

Anyway, all of the running, racing and training information and musings is on the other slightly neglected site.

So as the Phillies and general manager Pat Gillick were sending out offers to the dozens of free agents while trying to pick up the dreaded 7-10 split at the General Manager Meetings in Florida, I was probably wondering why I couldn’t feel my calves. I may have been ignoring a football game on TV while getting a two-beer buzz and wondering if it would take more effort to carve my golf handicap down to 15 or run another 2:30 marathon.

Clearly a 2:30 is more reasonable.

Nonetheless, my goal remains to squeeze through that ever-tightening window to run a respectable marathon just as the Phillies hope to make the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade. In that regard, I’ll go out on a limb here and say the Phillies will play baseball in October of 2007.

Wait… shouldn’t we wait for all of the hot-stove stuff to heat up? Don’t the Phillies have a few holes they need to fill?

No and yes.

I’ll explain why I believe the Phillies will make the playoffs in detail between now and next October – kind of like a serialization – so just keep checking back and delving through these ramblings. As for the needy stuff, let’s rate them in order of necessity:

Bolster bullpen

Get another starter (or two)

Address Pat Burrell situation

third base

catcher

Alfonso Soriano

Soriano, of course, is the biggest name on the market so it’s only natural that most of the media attention is focused on him. Yet whether or not the Phillies get Soriano won’t make or break the off-season. Why? Well, for starters the Phillies already score more runs than any other team. What, is it that important that the Phils really, really out-score every other team?

Secondly, Soriano’s so-called task would be to “protect” Ryan Howard. As I’ve written here so many times in the past, Howard hit 58 home runs and struck out 181 times – it sounds like he’s doing a pretty good job protecting himself.

Perhaps if he just struck out 150 times instead of 181, maybe he would have hit a few more homers and raised his average a few points. Would that have made a difference in the end? Who knows… there are too many other variables that transcend mere statistics.

This ain’t Strat-O-Matic, folks. Besides, I was always an APBA guy.

Besides, the Phillies traded away Bobby Abreu apparently in order to create some financial flexibility, yet they are willing to give more money and years to Soriano? Why does that make sense?

Well, Soriano is right-handed, hits for more power and hasn’t raised the hackles of certain segments of the fandom because they haven’t ever seen him play and only know him as a 40-40 guy who just so happens to be the biggest name on the market.

What better reason is there to sign a guy than that?

Plus, if the Phillies are unable to sign Soriano they still have Pat Burrell. Yes, Burrell has fallen out of favor in Philadelphia and had a disappointing season despite some statistics that don’t look all that bad. Like Howard and all of those strikeouts, just think if Burrell can hit .225 with runners in scoring position and two outs instead of .167.

Miscellany

Randy Wolf’s agent Arn Tellem said he wants to have his client signed before the winter meetings begin in Orlando on Dec. 4. According to published reports, the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays – as well as the Phillies – are interested in Wolf.

According to The Inquirer, Scott Graham likely will not return to the Phillies’ broadcast booth in 2007. During the baseball season I don’t get the chance to hear the home team’s announcers that much so I’m not much of an expert on their work. Nonetheless, if Graham does not get a new contract it’s a bit of a surprise.

I was always under the impression that baseball broadcasting jobs were like Supreme Court appointments… apparently not.

Again, I’m no expert and don’t have any insider information that I’m willing to share, but I don’t think Graham will be on the sidelines in 2007.

Remember the end of September when I waxed on and on about Ken Mandel’s “performance” in the President’s Race between innings at RFK? No? Here’s a reminder…

Anyway, Ken’s dash down the first-base side of the field was nominated for “The Blooper of the Year” on MLB.com. In fact, if Ken wins the online balloting, the Nationals want to have the Phillies.com reporter back to accept an award on the field dressed as Thomas Jefferson.

No word if the Oriole Bird will be on hand, too.

We will keep everyone up to date on all developments of this story.

Trading Burrell is linchpin to big winter

Pat Gillick and the Phillies are like an airplane loaded with passengers but still sitting at the gate. Everything has been checked and double-checked, everyone’s seatbelt is fastened and luggage is safely stowed in the overhead compartment.

All Gillick needs to is the OK from the control tower and he’s set for take off.

Kind of.

When the free-agency period begins on Nov. 12, Gillick and the Phillies are expected to woo Washington Nationals’ left fielder Alfonso Soriano, likely the biggest name on the winter market. On the strength of his 40-40 season in 2006 (46 homers and 41 stolen bases), the Phillies are said to be prepared to offer Soriano $80 million over five seasons, and then plunk him down in the middle of the batting order between lefties Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. The thought is that Soriano can both provide protection for the sluggers as well as fortify a lineup that has scored more runs than any National League team over the past two seasons.

“We could use some depth in the middle of the order,” Gillick said.

Even without Soriano the Phillies are formidable offensively. Howard, one of the top two MVP candidates on the strength of his 58-homer season in 2006, is the anchor of the murderer’s row that featured four players that swatted at least 25 homers and drove in 83 runs. Besides that, Gillick and manager Charlie Manuel are both very high on Shane Victorino, a young outfielder who appeared in 153 games in many roles last season.

Offense? Yeah, the Phillies have that.

So why do they feel the need to make it better with Soriano instead of pursuing a starter to fill out the rotation or a set-up man for closer Tom Gordon? After all, Manuel told said that he would prefer to have a backend reliever who has experience as a closer to fill out the bullpen. That’s where free agents Joe Borowski and David Weathers enter the picture. According to published reports and sources, the Phillies have eyed the relievers as possible set-up men for 2007.

On top of that, Gillick said that he wants to re-sign free agent starter Randy Wolf to round out the rotation that features lefties Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, as well as Jon Lieber and Brett Myers. Gillick says he’s hopeful that the Phillies can work out a deal with Wolf.

“Hopeful, but not optimistic,” the GM said.

“This is the first opportunity he’s ever had for free agency so I think he wants to kick the tires and see if the grass is greener.”

The grass may be greener, but for how long? The mood around the media luncheon in Citizen Bank Park’s Hall of Fame Club overlooking the pastoral and eerily quiet ball diamond was that the Phillies weren’t simply going to make bids for players, cross their fingers and hope they get their man. Nope, Gillick and the gang emitted an aura that they were in control of the situation and were confident that they will add the bat into the middle of the lineup, get that fifth starter, and find a suitable set-up man or two to anchor the bullpen.

Really? The Phillies? Didn’t they once describe themselves as a small-market team not so long ago?

“I think our ownership and CEO are pretty practical. Anything we bring to them that makes sense, not only for the short term, but the long term, I don't think they'll be reluctant to make the move,” Gillick said. “But it has to make sense. If you have to make a commitment you have to figure that player is going to figure for you for whatever time you're obligated. If you have to give somebody four years and you only get three years, that's one thing. But if you give somebody four years and you only get one, that's a different story.”

So the hot-stove is heating up for the Phillies. Signing Soriano should be a piece of cake, right? Five years without a no-trade clause should do it?

“You can't ever be sure,” Gillick said. “But when you make these decisions, are you going to be in love with this guy a year from now as much as you're in love with him right now? That's a decision you're going to have to make. I don't know a lot of people that I want to be in love with for five years.”

Like Pat Burrell for instance. Gillick didn’t come right out and say that he was trying to find a suitable deal for the maligned left fielder and the Phillies this winter, but he didn’t deny it either. The same goes for Manuel who when asked about Burrell had a resigned tenor of someone who knew something was coming, but didn’t want to come right out and say it.

“What hurt Pat the most was that when we got to the seventh or eighth inning we had to get him out of the game,” Manuel said without the best poker face. “If he didn’t have the foot issues he might have had a season like he did two years ago.

“I haven't ruled out the fact that he's still on our club. I've always stood with Pat. He lost some at-bats [because of his foot].”

But Burrell holds all of the cards – at least all of the good ones. He also might hold the Phillies winter progress – or lack therof – in his hands. Sure, the Phillies seem to forging ahead as if they can sign all of the players they want and keep Burrell if he doesn’t agree to be moved, but the reality is the left fielder needs to go if the team is going to fulfill their off-season objectives.

Where or when that occurs is anyone’s guess.

More pitching
If the Phillies are not able to re-sign Wolf, Gillick says the fifth starter will likely come from outside the organization.

“We've got to get another starter, and I don't see that starter coming out of our organization. It'll have to come from outside,” Gillick said. “We've got some things to attend to from the starting standpoint and from the bullpen standpoint.”

Nonetheless, Gillick says he is much happier with the state of the rotation now than he was last year.

“This year we’ll open with Hamels and Moyer instead of (Gavin) Floyd and (Ryan Madson),” he said.

Manuel agrees with the GM noting that the rotation at the end of the season was the “best we’ve had in two years.”

Other luncheon notes
If the season were to end today, Ken Mandel's fantasy football team would be in the playoffs. This is despite the fact that Phillies.com writer's club has the least amount of points in the scribes football league.

On the outside and looking in is yours truly, who is running away with the points title but is just 4-4-1.

"We have to do better and I'll take full responsibility," I said in a release issued by the team.

A few writers were steamed that the availability with Charlie Manuel was held up by a TV reporter who wanted to talk to the manager about professional wrestling. Never mind the fact that the channel usually devotes a little less than 180 seconds to sports coverage every night.

Or that no one watches that channel.

Nevertheless, I'd like to know the skipper's thoughts on the Junkyard Dog or Jimmy "Super Fly" Snuka. If the segment gets on YouTube, please send me the link.

Winter could be warm for Phillies

For the past two seasons, the Phillies scored some runs. Actually, the Phillies scored a lot of runs. Last year the Phils led the National League with 865 runs, and hold the distinction as the league’s most prolific run-scoring team over the past three seasons.

Needless to say, the Phillies’ hitters have provided ample support for the pitching staff. But according to a story in the Philadelphia Inquirer, general manager Pat Gillick is interested in adding even more punch to the offense.

When the free-agent signing period official opens on Nov. 12, the Phillies are expected to offer Nationals’ free agent Alfonso Soriano a big, fat contract. According to The Washington Post, Soriano is looking for a deal similar to Carlos Beltran’s seven-year, $119 million pact inked with the Mets two years ago. The Phillies’ response: how about five years for $80 million?

Soriano, of course, hit 46 homers and swiped 41 bags in 2006 with 95 RBIs despite serving as the Nationals’ primary leadoff hitter. In 2006, Soriano’s OPS jumped to a career-high .911, but his strikeouts also soared to a new high of 160.

Regardless, Phils' GM Pat Gillick has coveted Soriano all the way back to his days in Seattle. According to ESPN's Buster Olney, Gillick tried to trade for Soriano when he was with the Yankees, offering reliever Jose Paniagua.

Though the Mets are also reportedly interested in the 40-40 man – the Orioles too, but they are likely a long shot – the Phillies should view Soriano as a perfect middle-of-the-order hitter to provide the supposed need for protection for Ryan Howard.

How much protection does a guy who hit 58 homers really need?

Now here’s the rub – according to sources and published reports, the Phillies could make the offer to Soriano even without trading much-maligned left fielder Pat Burrell.

Burrell and Soriano in the same lineup as Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins? Yeah, that could work.

Nevertheless, there are still many issues and bridges to cross here. The Phillies still are very interested in dealing away Burrell and the $27 million owed on the final two seasons of his deal. And of course he has that pesky no-trade clause to contend with, too.

Suppose the Phillies land Soriano and fail to deal Burrell… does that mean Soriano is the right fielder? Playing right field is considerably tougher than playing left, and Soriano struggled in his first season as an outfielder for the Nats last season. Sure, Soriano led all outfielders with 22 assists last season, but he also committed 11 errors, which was one behind Adam Dunn for the league lead.

Still, if nothing else it appears as if the Phillies will be very active this winter. The team is still very interested in re-signing left-handed starter Randy Wolf though it seems very likely that he will test the open market. There also have been rumors regarding the Phils’ interest in Gary Sheffield, though the Phillies would not be able to have both Soriano and Sheffield without dealing Burrell.

More free agents
The Phillies have one spot open in their rotation and they want to fill it with Wolf. However, if Wolf decides he’d rather pitch for a different team, the Phillies have plenty of other options. Here’s a list of free-agent starters that could pique the team’s interest:

Jason Schmidt
Ted Lilly
Barry Zito
Mike Mussina
Gil Meche
Jason Johnson
Mark Mulder
Jamey Wright
Greg Maddux
Andy Pettitte
Shawn Chacon
Miguel Batista
Roger Clemens
Rodrigo Lopez
Chan Ho Park
Jeff Suppan

No thank you
Aaron Rowand and the Phillies each declined their options for the 2007 season. As a result, Rowand is eligible for arbitration. Rowand turned down a $3.25 million player option, while the Phillies did not pick up the $5 million club option.

Rowand joins Ryan Madson, Brett Myers, Geoff Geary and Chase Utley as the Phils' other arbitration-eligible players. The Phillies still control Rowand's rights and can either negotiate a new deal with the center fielder or take him to salary arbitration.

Unless there is a trade, it seems very unlikely that Rowand will be elsewhere in 2007.

Horn honking
Off the bat: Bryant Gumbel's Real Sports is the best sports program on TV. In fact, there is no competition and it's unfair to compare the HBO show with anything else out there.

When I get a chance to watch it, I do. Sometimes more than once.

So imagine my surprise when Mr. Gumbel's final thought to close the show touched on a lot of the same themes examined in this post.

I doubt Mr. Gumbel reads these pages, so it's probably just a coincidence and a case of a pair of sharp minds (well, he is much more sharper than me) thinking alike. But if does read this site, we're very flattered.

And his thoughts were right on the money.